Peace on Edge: Why Pakistan-Afghanistan ceasefire may not last?

Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to a ceasefire, which is going on smoothly with no apparent provocation from either side. However, there is a strong possibility that the peace will elude the rugged hilly nation, and the two neighbouring countries may resume skirmishes soon. Some analysts are upset with Islamabad's proxy Taliban attacking Pakistan despite the Islamic Brotherhood and shared ideology. Some experts also point out that the Taliban-led government in Kabul became more aggressive and defiant and challenged Pakistan after Foreign Minister Malik Khan Muttaqi was welcomed in New Delhi. 

Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis and Durand Line

However, Pakistan-Afghanistan animosity and lack of trust go back to the time when India was divided and a new nation based on religion was carved out of it. Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand Line, set up in 1893 by Sir Mortimer Durand. It was a line to divide the areas based on dominance. The British rulers wanted to restrict the Afghan king. The areas dominated by Pashtuns were divided between British India and Afghanistan. Kabul did not accept the division. The Afghan king asked the British to resolve the issue and abolish the Durand Line before they left India. British rulers did not do it and they left the problem, which kept on deepening. 

(Durand Line was drawn in 1893.)

From Abdur Rehman Khan, the Afghan king, who signed the Durand Line deal in 1893, to the present ruler, the Taliban, no one has ever accepted the Durand Line. Afghanistan rulers have always wanted the Pushtun areas of Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the northern parts of Balochistan to be given back to them. Pashtuns also have a sizable presence in parts of Sindh, Punjab, and the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but the Taliban wants the areas adjoining the Durand Line to be given back to Kabul. Pakistan will never agree to it. 

Trade and transit route to Afghanistan

The second most irritating point is the trade and transit route to Afghanistan. Afghanistan, being a landlocked country, has access to the outside world only through Pakistan and Iran. All the governments in Afghanistan have preferred a transit route to India through the Wagah border. Islamabad has strongly resisted it; it has used all possible means to deny this route. Pakistan has also not allowed Kabul to use the Karachi port. 

(Pakistan-Afghanistan border)

Punjabi dominance hurts Pushtun pride?

The third reason is the ethnic one and the problem of Punjabi dominance. Though Islamabad has co-opted Pathans and the tribals on both sides have many similarities and common points, Punjabi dominance irritates them most. Even Pakistani Pathans have a long-nourished grudge that a bigger part of their land was given to Islamabad. This is the reason militant outfit Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) finds sympathisers on both sides of the divide. 

TTP and Taliban

Last but not least is the allegation of being ungrateful. As Pakistan provided the Taliban with shelter, weapons, money, training, and strategic support, it thinks that they must support whatever they ask for. If the Taliban does not support Islamabad, they are "ehsanfaramosh" (ungrateful). However, the Taliban thinks whatever Islamabad did for them was for its own strategy and benefit. They cannot be called "ehsanfaramosh" if they refuse to be at the beck and call of Pakistan. Analysts believe the Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis may deepen further. There may be more clashes.