Pahalgam Massacre: Will India carry out limited aerial attack on terrorist hideouts in Pakistan? Why has Islamabad deployed planes?

Will India go for a retaliatory surgical attack in Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack? This question is being asked after suspected Pakistan-based TRF terrorists have killed 26 innocent civilians in Jammu and Kashmir. Responding to the mayhem at Pahalgam, Union Home Minister Amit Shah vowed that "the culprits of this dastardly terror attack will not be spared." Considering Amit Shah's response juxtaposed to the 2016 Uri surgical strikes and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, no one should be surprised if India chooses to carry out a limited airstrike on the terrorist hideouts in Pakistan. 

Amit Shah vows "harshest consequences"

The response of the Union government was swift and true to its narrative. The Home Minister chaired a high-level security meeting in Srinagar on Tuesday evening, shortly after arriving there. The heads of some central security and intelligence agencies participated in the review meeting. The meeting discussed intelligence inputs, regional vulnerabilities, and a coordinated response. The government has vowed swift action and Amit Shah declared that the attackers "will face the harshest consequences".

Echoing the sentiment, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said, "We won’t just reach those people who carried out the attack. We will also reach out to those who planned this from behind the scenes on our land." Though he did not identify those he believes are responsible for the killings, he said that "India’s government will take every step that may be necessary and appropriate."

Political Pressure

The Pahalgam massacre was the biggest terrorist attack post the 2019 Pulwama attack, after which India sent its fighter planes deep inside Pakistan to target terrorist hideouts. The ultranationalist BJP-led government has come under pressure after anti-militant protests were held in Srinagar, demand to sever ties with Pakistan was raised and Congress leader Shama Mohamed demanded that "Rawalpindi should be flattened".

Symbolic Messaging

A limited surgical strike is best suited to the narrative of a strong state created by the ultranationalist BJP. It will also reinforce India’s stance that cross-border terrorism will not be tolerated at all and a fitting reply will be given to the perpetrators. As the Pahalgam terrorist attack is being attributed to Pakistan-based terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) amid allegations of "deep-state terrorism", a surgical attack will strengthen the ruling party and send a strong signal to the neighbouring nation. 

Military Preparedness

Though Pakistan has expressed concerns over the killing in Pahalgam, media reports suggest Pakistan has deployed its Saab Erieye Airborne Early Warning and Control system. It is clear that Islamabad is taking India’s military posture seriously and anticipates a possible strike.

Nuclear Risk

On the other hand, experts have warned that the Narendra Modi government may not walk the extra mile and take only symbolic and non-military actions, keeping in mind that both are nuclear powers. A military action has inherent risks, as it could provoke retaliation. Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir may perceive it as a direct and personal challenge. Behaving smartly after the humiliating incident of a train hijack by the Balochistan Liberation Army in the restive province, he may not take any military action by India lightly. As it happened in 2019 after the aerial attack in Pakistan, Islamabad sent fighter planes to India. An IAF pilot was arrested in Pakistan after his plane came under Pakistani fire and he exited. Tension escalated, and the two countries went to the brink of a full-fledged war. 

Non-military actions

Experts believe New Delhi should choose the non-military options instead. It could take diplomatic and economic measures, suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, end the 2021 LoC truce, or close the Attari-Wagah border. These steps may serve the purpose of sending a strong signal to Pakistan, pacifying the ultra-nationalist lobby in the country, and strengthening its narrative.