Pahalgam Massacre: Is Jammu and Kashmir slipping back into shadow of terror?

Will Jammu and Kashmir be going back to square one after the latest terrorist attack in the Pahalgam area of Anantnag in the state? There is no denying the fact that the attack, in which 26 civilians have been killed, could prove to be a turning point or a significant change in the trajectory of the situation. The region that witnessed a relative decline in terror incidents and greater integration after the abrogation of Article 370, may now see the situation getting worse and going back to square one. The Pahalgam massacre may reshape the security and political landscape of the state. 

Massive security clampdown on valley?

Analysts believe Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha, with the guidance of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, may order the state to be put under a massive military clampdown. The Valley, especially South Kashmir and its districts of Anantnag, Pulwama, Shopian, and Pahalgam, may once again be under stricter control and surveillance. The security forces may be more strict with increased frisking, surveillance, and cordon-and-search operations. 

If reports are to be believed, security forces are likely to re-intensify counter-insurgency drives. They may hunt down the cadres of The Resistance Front (TRF) and other proxies of the Pakistan-based terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). The security agencies may once again curb and implement digital blackouts to prevent the spread of propaganda.

According to the PTI, authorities are working on a plan to fill the security “vacuum” with a permanent deployment of army and paramilitary forces in the mountains overlooking the tourist destination in the Kashmir Valley.

Economy to suffer most?

The Pahalgam massacre is most likely to hit the economy of Jammu and Kashmir very badly. Being a major tourist hub and a gateway to the Amarnath Yatra, it is the fulcrum of tourism. The latest terrorist attack has shattered the perception that tourist zones are safe. It may trigger cancellations, hurt the local economy, and create mass anxiety. The tourists may desert the valley, hitting hard the related business ecosystem, and thousands of the local youths may be thrown out of jobs. 

It can be understood by the fact that about 2.3 crore visited the state in FY 2024-25. According to the official website of the Government of Jammu and Kashmir, 2,11,80,011 tourists visited the state in FY 2023, while 1,88,84,317 visited the state in FY 2022.

However, it is most likely to get a severe dent. According to the news agency PTI, nearly 90% of bookings for Jammu and Kashmir have been canceled by tourists over safety concerns in the aftermath of the attack. Media reports also suggest that as many as 3,337 passengers flew out of Srinagar in 20 flights on Wednesday. IndiGo, Air India, and SpiceJet are operating a total of seven extra flights in addition to their normal scheduled services from Srinagar.

Statehood demand on backburner?

Political observers believe the political situation in Jammu and Kashmir may go from bad to worse. The state may suffer further, and the calls for restoration of statehood or elections may be silenced, at least for the time being, under “security-first” arguments. Besides, local politicians, especially mainstream Kashmiri leaders like Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah, may be in a tight spot. They may be expected to condemn the violence but also question the policies of the Union government.