Is India moving closer to UAE, Israel to counter Islamic NATO? How can it neutralise Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Turkey axis?

Is India inching towards the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel to counter the Islamic NATO? Will the possible bloc be able to counter the axis of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey? How will it change the geopolitics of the Middle East and impact the dynamics of the world? Will Pakistan extend the axis to include Bangladesh and China?

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed's India visit

People were surprised when UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan visited India for just three hours on Monday. He came, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi, held talks with him, signed a defence deal and left immediately. The quick visit of three hours was enough for the two countries to announce their intention to conclude a "framework agreement" for a strategic defence partnership. 

This was the fifth India visit of Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, or MbZ, as he is called, in ten years. The meeting was so important that he travelled for six hours that day his three-hour visit. Analysts believe the "letter of intent", signed by India and the UAE, was much more significant than it appeared. It may lay down the foundation of an India-UAE defence cooperation agreement that may later include Tel Aviv to counter the axis of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. 

What is Islamic NATO, or Muslim NATO?

Though officially India is not forming any geopolitical axis, it certainly is deepening its ties with the UAE and Israel for a pragmatic strategic alignment. It may later also add Cyprus and Greece. Its strategy appears to be driven by security, technology, energy, and regional stability concerns. India's main concern is the growing clout of Pakistan and the Islamic NATO, or the Muslim NATO. It may offer Riyadh diversification from US security guarantees. Though the specifics of nuclear cooperation remain ambiguous, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khwaja Asif has said that Saudi Arabia may take the help of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. 

However, analysts point out that it may be an incoherent bloc at its best as Turkey and Saudi Arabia are rivals, not allies. It has been exhibited in their policies towards Libya and the Muslim Brotherhood. The two countries also have divergent views on the politics of the Muslim world, or Ummah. They oppose each other in the politics of the 57-member bloc of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Saudi Arabia has also steadily distanced itself from Pakistan’s politics over Jammu and Kashmir.

India-UAE-Israel axis

On the other hand, India has slowly and gradually moved closer to Israel, though it continues to support the two-state solution of the Palestine question. Media reports suggest India supplied Tel Aviv with missiles during its recent war against Hamas. India-Israel cooperation has been mainly in the fields of counterterrorism, cyber, maritime security, and technology & defence. New Delhi also wants to forge close ties with the Jewish state for trade corridors, food security, and energy transition. It may also add the US to make it India-Israel-UAE-US, or the I2U2 group for all practical purposes, without forming a formal bloc. 

While India can neutralize Pakistan's leverage in the Gulf politics, it can also get the UAE's help on the Kashmir issue. Though Turkey was earlier closer to India on the issue of Kashmir, it has slowly and gradually shifted its stand and moved closer to Islamabad. India can use Abu Dhabi to counter Ankara. It is also a fact that Saudi Arabia has made a massive investment of more than $20 billion in India and they plan to invest about $100 billion by 2030. It cannot endanger this massive investment by pushing the country to jeopardy. So, Riyadh is most unlikely to appease Pakistan at the cost of India.