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Why is Islamabad upset over Iran unrest? Could protests trigger security and economic fallout in Pakistan?

As protests rock Iran, Pakistan fears spillover into Balochistan, border instability and economic disruption. Here’s how Iran’s unrest could affect Islamabad.

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Why is Islamabad upset over Iran unrest? Could protests trigger security and economic fallout in Pakistan?
Asim Muneer, COAS, Pakistan, (File Image)
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How will the Iranian protests impact its neighbouring state of Pakistan? Will the nationwide protests demanding regime change have their ripple effects across the border and hit the restive province of Balochistan? Is it true that the US troops have arrived in Pakistan  so that they can hit Iran if a war unfolds? More than 500 people have been killed in the government crackdown on the protests that have spread across many cities in the country. The tensions have escalated with US President Donald Trump threatening to hit Iran if the protesters are attacked. The protests against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his Islamic regime remain unabated as they have entered the third week. 

Pakistan-Iran Ties

Though the Pakistan government has called the protests the "internal matter of Iran", its Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel advisory urging its nationals to avoid all non-essential travel to the Shiite country. It said, "Pakistani nationals currently residing in Iran are urged to exercise extreme caution, remain vigilant, minimise non-essential travel, and stay in regular contact with the Pakistani Missions." However, the experts believe there is much more than what meets the eye. 

The two countries share a boundary of about 900 kilometres and the Iranian Sistan province is situated just opposite to the restive Pakistani province of Balochistan. Both of the states are populated by Sunni Muslims with Baloch and Azeri ethnicities, they share history, tradition, culture, and language. It can be said that the same people are separated by political division. The border is sensitive, volatile to some extent due to the insurgency led by Baloch separatist groups, which have wreaked havoc in Pakistan.

Iran protests impact on Pakistan

Islamabad cannot remain nonchalant about what is happening across the border is also clear from the fact that the Pakistani security agencies were upset when Israel carried out Operation Rising Lion last year. Turbulence in Iran could trigger an escalation in the Baloch liberation movement on either side of the border. Pakistan apprehends that Tehran may be unable to stop the militants from crossing over the border and carrying out their operations in the country. 

 

According to unconfirmed reports, US Special Forces have arrived in Pakistan to prepare for a possible war with Iran. A verified X handle with over 78,000 followers claimed on Saturday that "a large contingent of U.S. special forces has arrived in Pakistan to make extensive preparations for a possible war with Iran and has already begun joint exercises with Pakistani troops." It said further, "The main objective of the arrival of this large group of U.S. special forces in Pakistan and the joint exercises with the Pakistani army is to ensure better coordination and readiness of American and Pakistani forces in the event of a potential war with Iran." It also claimed that Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir had pledged full cooperation of all kinds.

Iran unrest Balochistan

There are other issues as well. If the unrest in Iran continues, the prices of fuel and goods may go up and encourage smuggling networks. As the Pakistan economy is already under stress, with a shortage of essential commodities like wheat and rice, the situation may get further complicated with unrest in the neighbourhood. It may also disrupt the bilateral trade and impact the economy of both countries. As the present crisis seems to be the manifestation of the deep-rooted economic woes with inflation and unemployment soaring, Pakistan cannot ignore the security issues and the challenges it may face if the discontent continues for long. 

 

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