Iran after Venezuela? Why Donald Trump can't afford regime change in Tehran?

As thousands of Iranians came out on the streets protesting against the Islamic regime and the government responded with a crackdown, US President Donald Trump threatened to intervene if innocent people were killed. Emboldened by the successful capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, Washington may be tempted to intervene and remove the present regime, which has been a thorn in its flesh for decades. However, analysts believe, the Trump administration would not take the extreme step considering its ramifications and implications on international and domestic politics that may impact geopolitics. 

Iran Protests 2026

At a time when Iran is reeling under the deepest economic crisis due to the US sanctions and the people chanted, "Death to the dictator!" and "Death to the Islamic Republic!", Washington views it as an opportunity in crisis. Trump told Fox News Thursday, "If they do anything bad to these people, we're going to hit them very hard." He issued a similar warning last week. Responding to the threat, Tehran said it did not want a war, but it was ready to face it. 

(Protest erupts in Tehran.)

Can the US military overthrow the Iranian government? Technically, yes, it can. Iran's redundant military with archaic arms and ammunition is not a distant match to the US military, which boasts of 1.3 million personnel armed with the most sophisticated and lethal military hardware. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran can create problems for the Pentagon, as it controls vast military, economic, and political power. Tehran can carry out missile strikes, asymmetric attacks on the US forces, and block the Strait of Hormuz, hitting the global oil flows and putting the oil prices on fire.

Middle East war and geopolitical risks

If the US attacks Iran, other regional powers and Tehran's allies like Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon may get involved. Big powers like Russia and China may oppose any US move to destabilise the Islamic Republic and an all-out Middle Eastern war cannot be ruled out. Besides Moscow and Beijing, Turkey and the Gulf states also have high strategic stakes in Iran; they are most likely to oppose any U.S.-engineered government in Tehran. It may lead to geopolitical fragmentation and proxy conflicts.

US intervention in the internal affairs of other countries does not sync with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) and America First strategies. Trump has already come under the scathing attack of his MAGA followers for sending military to Venezuela. It may trigger widespread protests in the US, and the Democrats may make it a political issue to attack the president. Though the Republicans enjoy a majority in the House of Representatives as well as the Senate, if the military is caught up in a war in Iran, bipartisan politicians may create a problem for Trump and may go to the extent of moving the impeachment motion. 

Donald Trump's Iran intervention threat

Another important factor is that the regime of the Shiite clerics has deep roots in the society, which is not happy with the regime but may not go to the extent of overthrowing the same. The masses are upset about the economic conditions, and the economy has hit rock bottom. The Iranian economy has suffered years of stringent international sanctions, and the situation has been compounded by domestic mismanagement. The economic squeeze has eroded public confidence and deepened dissatisfaction. The working and lower-middle classes are the most affected who now find themselves struggling to meet daily needs. 

However, their disillusionment with the Islamic rule is not yet complete. The Islamic regime is resilient, and the clerics may make adjustments and appeal to the masses once again. Decades of anti-Americanism are so deep-rooted that the masses in general may not back foreign military action just to get rid of the people they hate. Any military action may unite the masses, and they may end up backing the regime they are protesting against. 

US Iran regime change feasibility

Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, may be fanning the unrest from behind the curtains, but he is not popular in the country. He is trying to fish in the troubled waters, but Iranians may not want to reinstate him, as no one wants to move from one form of autocratic rule to another. The masses may still pin their hopes on liberal President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is a member of the reformist faction of the regime. He is known for his disagreement with the supreme leader and pragmatic approach to the world order, including the US. He continues to enjoy support among the masses for his reformist approach and liberal economic policies. Pezeshkian is also the person who does not want a clash with the US and Israel. He wants to get the US sanctions removed and take the path of reforms and economic recovery instead. He wants to put the country back on track while maintaining the Islamic rule. So, the US may not find it wise to send military to Tehran.