How Bihar 2025 results could shape high-stakes West Bengal Assembly Election? Can BJP break Mamata’s 15-year hold?

How may the results of the Bihar Election 2025 impact the forthcoming assembly elections in the state of Best Bengal? All eyes are on West Bengal, where the BJP won 77 seats in 2021, its best electoral performance in the state. The state will go to the polls in February, with Mamata Banerjee in power for 15 years. With three terms under her belt, while she has strengthened her grip over the state, an anti-incumbency sentiment and political fatigue among workers can not be ruled out. Will these factors help the saffron party capture the bastion that it has never breached?

BJP in West Bengal

Buoyed on the party's unexpectedly good performance in Bihar, Leader of Opposition in West Bengal Suvendu Adhikari said, "Bihar’s victory is ours; now it is Bengal’s turn. Just as the Bihar election was conducted after the SIR, the poll in Bengal will also be conducted with a pure and clean electoral roll." Drawing a parallel to Bihar, BJP IT Cell head, Amit Malaviya said, "People of Bengal are waiting to vote her out. The only thing that must be ensured is that people get to vote freely, which is a big challenge in Bengal because just like the 'Jungle Raj' of Lalu Prasad, Bengal also continues to be in the throes of violence." 

'Jungle Raj' in West Bengal?

By drawing a parallel to Bihar's alleged "Jungle Raj", the saffron party wants to target the West Bengal government. The Mamata Banerjee government received flak and bad press after a doctor was raped and killed at a government medical college in Kolkata. Massive protests were held at many places in the state, doctors went on strike for many days and the state came under severe criticism. Mamata Banerjee came under scathing attack again when a medical student was allegedly raped in Durgapur. Similarly, she was also criticized after a riot erupted in Maldah and two people, a Hindu and a Muslim, were killed. 

(Massive protests were held after RG Kar rape incident.)

In another serious development, West Bengal Governor C.V. Ananda Bose called on President Droupadi Murmu at the Rashtrapati Bhavan on October 8 and informed her that law and order in the State was being strangulated by the protectors of the law themselves. He told her, "In Bengal, law and order are being strangulated by the protectors of law and order — the police themselves...It appears those who are supposed to control the situation need to be controlled by others. This situation cannot continue in a democratic setup. This kind of anarchy, near-anarchy, cannot continue even in an isolated pocket of Bengal. Bengal deserves better policing."

Mamata Banerjee anti-incumbency

Mamata Banerjee's government has to face many challenges, including allegations of corruption. Many of her ministers, including Partho Chatterjee, were arrested with charges of corruption, accepting bribes, money laundering and disproportionate income. Some of the TMC MPs were also accused of being involved in the scam related to the Sarda chit fund or the ponzi scheme that allegedly cheated millions of people. These issues will certainly haunt the ruling party despite the fact that the chief minister not only disowned them, distanced herself from them and sacked them from whatever post they held at the time. 

(Mamata Banerjee has carved out a vote bank of women voters.)

Mamata Banerjee's vote bank schemes

However, Mamata Banerjee has rolled out many schemes, giving out doles to women, children, youth and farmers. In this series, the latest addition is migrant workers, returning from other states due to alleged harassment for being Bengali. Announcing the Shramashree scheme in August this year, she said that a monthly stipend of Rs 5,000 would be given to all such migrant workers for up to one year till they get a job. Under the government's flagship 'Khadya Sathi' scheme, free ration is given to nearly nine crore people. The state government also provides essential items at subsidised prices to the economically weaker families during festivals like Durga Puja, Kali Puja, Chhath Puja, and Ramadan. Under the Maa project, the state government gives lunch for just Rs 5 to the poor people. The government claims that through 356 Maa Canteens, 8.58 crore poor people have benefited. The chief minister also claimed that people are getting vegetables and fruits at much lower prices than the market rates through 745 outlets of 'Sufal Bangla'.

(West Bengal government has reached out to migrant workers.)

Women voters of West Bengal

Like Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee too has developed and nourished her own vote bank- the women, through many schemes. Mamata Banerjee has nourished this segment through women-centric schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar for financial assistance to women, Kanyashree Prakalpa to incentivize girls' education and delay marriage, and Rupashree Prakalpa for a one-time grant to economically stressed families for their adult daughters' weddings. Other government schemes include  Lokprasar Prakalpa for artists and Mahila Samridhi Yojana for women entrepreneurs, and the state has also participated in national programs like the Ujjwala Yojana for LPG connections. 

Analysts believe it will be difficult for the BJP to counter these schemes and corner the state government and the ruling TMC, considering the populist schemes that reportedly benefit crores of people.