Explained: Will China support Pakistan in war against India? These are possibilities...

China sent shock waves across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and its reverberations were heard in India when it announced to defend Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the wake of the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Twenty-six people, all innocent and unarmed civilians, were killed when gunmen opened fire on them at Baisaran Meadow on April 22. The Resistance Front, a facade of Pakistan-based terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed its responsibility, though it denied the same days later. 

Will China support Pakistan in war?

China's announcement amid escalating tension between India and Pakistan has left many analysts and diplomatic observers confused. Will China really join Pakistan if a war between India and Pakistan breaks out? Or will it put pressure on Islamabad not to get engaged in a war with India to protect its interests like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or other projects under the Belt and Road Initiative? Beijing has invested more than $60 billion in the CPEC, besides many other projects. 

Why is Pakistan important for China?

Pakistan is China's all-weather friend and a strategic partner for economic and security reasons due to its geopolitical presence. It can give Beijing a naval base in Gwadar, where China can monitor movements in the Indian Ocean from India to Africa under its policy of encircling New Delhi and keeping an eye on the US. Secondly, Islamabad can also allow China enough place and space to deploy its forces on the Himalayas to open a second front and encircle India in any future skirmishes with New Delhi. Naturally, Xi Jinping-led government backs Pakistan as a true friend. 

India-China economic partnership

However, China can not anger India, with which it has a bilateral trade of $127.7 billion with a trade surplus of $99.2 billion, and that too at a time when it has been caught in a trade war with the US. Secondly, the Chinese economy has not yet come out of the woods with a GDP growth rate of a meager 5%, with a world recession looming large due to the tariff war launched by Donald Trump. Any involvement in war will not only disrupt its supply chain but may also isolate it economically, plunging it into a deep economic crisis. 

By supporting Pakistan on the issue of terrorism or Jammu and Kashmir, China will not get anything in return. It will neither get any strategic depth on its border with India in Leh along the LAC nor any geopolitical advantage. On the other hand, it will be held responsible for supporting terrorism and backing Pakistan in the India-governed area, which can be called disputed even from Islamabad's point of view. China-Pakistan defence cooperation is limited to the export of military hardware, including fighters and missiles, intelligence sharing, and joint exercises, and the main beneficiary is Pakistan, not China. 

What can China do?

However, defence experts believe China may be tempted to fish in the troubled waters to get a foothold in Pakistan to the extent that it does not get its fingers burnt. In certain scenarios, Beijing can help Pakistan to a limited extent. In case of an India-Pakistan localised conflict, China can extend diplomatic support like it has already done by backing it demand for an independent probe into the Pahalgam attack. But, it is not likely to extend military help. 

What if India attacks nuclear facilities?

If India makes a preemptive strike on Pakistan's nuclear facilities, Beijing can give limited military support by making movements on the LAC. If a full-fledged war breaks out, the communist country can help Islamabad by making intrusions at certain points along the LAC to distract its attention. Beijing can come out in full support of Pakistan only if India targets its projects and other interests like the CPEC or Gwadar or other BRI projects. No military or political leadership in India can go to this extent, knowing the possible consequences.