DNA Explainer: Russia-Ukraine war and its impact leading to global food shortage

Russia's war in Ukraine is now leading to a global hunger with food shortages in developing and under developed countries due to the stoppage of food exports from the war-torn country. This is making food more expensive across the globe, threatening to worsen shortages, hunger, and political instability in many parts.

In terms of food export, both Russia and Ukraine are very important countries. Russia and Ukraine together export nearly a third of the world's wheat and barley, more than 70% of its sunflower oil and are big suppliers of corn. Ukraine is also known as the 'breadbasket of the world'. Besides, Russia is also the top global fertiliser producer.

Read | DNA Explainer: How world is reacting to wheat export ban by India amid Ukraine war

Due to the ongoing war, 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain has been prevented from getting to the Middle East, North Africa, and parts of Asia. Russian ships and sea mines block Ukrainian Black Sea ports. 90% of wheat and other grain from Ukraine are shipped to the world markets by sea.

Before the war, Ukraine exported on an average about 6 million tons of agri-commodities every month to countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.

Currently, only about 15 to 20% of this volume can be exported through rail, river and roads. According to Anna Nagurney, who studies crisis management at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and is on the board of the Kyiv School of Economics, says 400 million people worldwide rely on Ukrainian food supplies. 

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) projects up to 181 million people in 41 countries could face a food crisis or worse levels of hunger this year. Russia provided 52.32 million tons (7.8%) and Ukraine 69.82 million tons (11.3%) of cereals to the world.

Russia-Ukraine global cereals trade

Ukraine also exports oilseeds (sunflower, soybeans, rapeseed). 52% of globally traded sunflower seed and oil came from Ukraine in 2020. Currently, edible-oil supply chains are disrupted and edible-oil prices increased even higher than cereals prices.

Countries, such as Somalia, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt and Sudan, are heavily reliant on wheat, corn and sunflower oil from the two warring nations. Egypt, where bread is a staple diet, relies on imported wheat to meet more than half of its daily wheat and calorie requirements. Ukraine and Russia provided for 85% of the country's imports in 2020-2021.

UN agencies estimated that more than 2,00,000 people in Somalia face 'catastrophic hunger and starvation', roughly 18 million Sudanese could experience acute hunger by September and 19 million Yemenis face food insecurity this year. Wheat prices have risen in some of those countries by as much as 750%. 

Algeria has completely stopped exports of semolina, pasta and wheat products to prevent depletion of its stocks. 

While some countries face the threat of hunger and starvation, a vast amount of grain is stuck in silos or on farms in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine's harvest of winter wheat is getting under way soon, putting more stress on storage facilities even as some fields are likely to go unharvested because of the fighting.

US President Joe Biden says he’s working with European partners on a plan to build temporary silos on Ukraine’s borders, including with Poland.

How much food prices are rising?

Wheat prices were up 45% in the first three months of the year compared with the previous year, according to the FAO's wheat price index. Vegetable oil has jumped 41%, while sugar, meat, milk and fish prices have also risen by double digits.

The price of wheat globally has now shot up by approximately 50% since the invasion began. About 20 countries have imposed food restrictions and taxes on food since late February. Another threat is scarce and costly fertiliser, meaning fields could be less productive. There are especially big shortfalls in two of the main chemicals in fertiliser, of which Russia is a big supplier.

(With UN data Inputs)