China-Pakistan ties under strain? Xi’s visit amid Pakistan’s growing US engagement, how may it impact India?

Is Pakistan's all-weather friend, China, upset with its increasing bonhomie with the US? After Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir made frequent visits to Washington, where they were received warmly, Chinese President Xi Jinping would make a state visit to Islamabad soon. He is most likely to announce multiple projects, including those in the sectors of agriculture, IT, artificial intelligence, mines and minerals, and youth development. Besides, Xi Jinping is also expected to announce a new project under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 2.0. 

Pakistan-China Ties

Analysts believe that Beijing is not happy with Islamabad for the increasing Pakistan-US collaboration in many areas. China may be upset with Pakistan's offer to allow its rare earth mineral deposits in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and part of Balochistan. It is a sensitive issue for China. After Donald Trump imposed new tariffs of 35% on Chinese products, Beijing responded by holding the exports of the rare earth minerals to the US. Trump hit back, a tariff war erupted and China ended up with US tariffs of 350%. Later, the two sides held back-channel talks and allowed concessions to each other. Pakistan's offer to bail out the US by opening its rare earth deposits must not have gone well with Beijing. 

Analysts believe China is also upset over the possibility of Afghanistan allowing the Pentagon use its Bagram airbase. Initially constructed by Russia and later developed by the US, the airbase is close to China's Xinjiang province. Any presence of the US Air Force at this base may threaten the security of China. Though the Taliban administration has not yet indicated its willingness to allow Washington, they may barter it for recognition of the government. If Kabul does it, China may find itself in a difficult position. Xi Jinping may have the intention of seeking Pakistan's help to stop. Though Pakistan-Afghanistan relations are not at their best at present, Islamabad can certainly impress the Taliban. 

Xi Jinping Pakistan visit

Xi Jinping's visit to Islamabad is most likely to upset India. New Delhi was upset in a recent development over China’s infrastructure projects in the Shaksgam Valley through the CPEC. It called them ‘illegal and invalid,’ and said the region is an ‘integral and inalienable part’ of India. The Ministry of External Affairs reiterated its stand that India does not recognise the so-called CPEC. A part of the CPEC is situated in the China-occupied Aksai Chin, the other in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India claims both these parts as its own, under illegal occupation. 

Though neither India nor China escalated the issue, Xi Jinping's visit to Pakistan at this juncture has special significance for New Delhi. The Chinese president is most likely to roll out more sops for Pakistan to woo it. However, India will keep an eye on the visit and see if any announcement is made on defence cooperation. Pakistan used the Chinese-made fighter jets and air-to-air missiles in its military clash with India in May last year. Besides, Beijing also supplied Islamabad with real-time satellite images of Indian defence assets.