Can Indian take back Pakistan-occupied Kashmir amid war-like situation? Possible scenario if Indian Army...

Can India take advantage of the escalating tension and war-like situation and capture Pakistan-occupied Kashmir? Is it militarily, logistically, and diplomatically feasible to snatch from Pakistan what its army chief called the "jugular vein"? The question is important also because time and again, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, and many other BJP leaders have said that the PoK belongs to India and the government will take it back. They have also taken this pledge in the Parliament. Can they?

Turbulent past of PoK

Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, or the PoK, was a part of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir till it was invaded by Pakistan Army troops in the disguise of "kabailis," or tribal insurgents, in October 1947. By the time the Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir signed the instrument of accession with New Delhi and the Indian Army took on the invaders and a cease-fire was declared, it was too late. A chunk of land comprising approximately 13,297 square kilometers of Pakistan-controlled area and 72,971 square kilometers of Gilgit-Baltistan is still under the control of Islamabad. 

(India-Pakistan War, 1947-48.)

Military might of India

Militarily, India can snatch the PoK, as it has the world's second-largest active army with 14.50 lakh active personnel. India has 72 nuclear warheads, advanced fighter jets like the Rafale, S-400 air defense systems, and supersonic missiles like the BrahMos. Its defense budget for 2025-26 is $81 billion, eightfold more than Pakistan's $10 billion. Besides, New Delhi has the Cold Start doctrine of war that envisions quick, rapid, and short intervention to capture the area.

Difficult terrain

However, there are many challenges that make it very difficult for any army in the world. Pakistan has a heavy deployment, with the X Corps of Rawalpindi overseeing operations. It has also fortified the areas along the LoC and equipped them with anti-tank missiles and air defenses like HQ-9. A rugged mountainous terrain, with many peaks ranging up to 8,000 meters in Gilgit-Baltistan, makes it extremely difficult for mechanized operations. Besides, key routes like the Karakoram Highway are heavily guarded. 

(China-Pakistan Economic Corridor)

Chinese Checkers

The worst challenge may come from China, which is working on many infrastructure projects, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in the PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. Beijing has invested more than $60 billion in these projects and is most likely to intervene if its interests are threatened. It will be very difficult for India to fight if China opens the second front on the eastern part of the Himalayas.

Any attempt to take back the PoK from Pakistan may provoke it to use nuclear weapons, which may bring unimaginable consequences for the masses of both countries. In a U.S. intelligence estimate made in 2019, it was found that there is a 10-20% chance of nuclear use in a major India-Pakistan conflict. Pakistan may perceive it as a threat to its existence and use the nuclear bomb if it stares at a complete defeat and surrender of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. 

Analysts believe it is almost impossible to take back the PoK at present, and any decision to do so may be foolish to the core.