Bihar Elections 2025: Who will be next CM? Will BJP ditch Nitish Kumar for its own leader after polls?

After the Election Commission of India announced the polling date for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025, the most important question that has cropped up is: who will be the next chief minister of the state? The elections will be held in two phases on November 6 and 11 and the votes will be counted on November 14 for the 243-member Bihar Assembly that will complete its term on November 22. Soon after, a new house will be constituted and a new government will be sworn in. So, who will be the next head of state? Will incumbent Chief Minister Nitesh Kumar continue or pass the baton to someone else?

Why is BJP not betting on Nitish Kumar?

Home Minister Amit Shah set the ball rolling last year when he said that the BJP would elect the chief minister after the elections. He made his intention clear by hinting at a new leader and that too from the saffron party. Nitish Kumar does not fit this description. When he sounded the poll bugle for the first time on March 31, 2025, at a rally in Gopalgunj, he did not name Nitish Kumar even once as the Chief Ministerial candidate, though he praised him for good governance. When he met the party workers and state leaders in Patna, he did not mention Nitish. 

Though the BJP has done its homework diligently, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making numerous forays into Bihar and announcing a slew of government schemes particularly benefitting the state, he did not announce that the present chief minister would continue. Analysts believe there are many reasons for Nitish Kumar not getting an opportunity next time. 

Will Nitish Kumar go further down?

The Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) won only 43 seats while the BJP won 80 seats in the 2020 Bihar Assembly Election. An anti-incumbency wave is sweeping Bihar, with Nitish Kumar being extremely unpopular and faring poorly on the choice of the next chief minister in almost all studies. There is less probability of him improving the seat tally this time. 

Secondly, Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland with no BJP chief minister despite the saffron party's best efforts. After all, the BJP should have its own chief minister to implement its own agenda and programmes if it can. If the party gets the most number of seats like last time, why should it make Nitish Kumar the Chief Minister once again? However, Nitish Kumar continues to command the support of Koeri-Kurmi castes, which constitute 16 per cent of the electorate. He also enjoys the backing of the women voters. Why does the saffron party not have a piggyback ride on him and jettison him after the polls if his political position gets further weakened?

What will happen to Nitish Kumar after polls?

The knives are out, the gloves are off. The BJP will contest the elections on the good governance plank of the chief minister. If it gets more seats than JD(U), which it can, the saffron will most likely jettison Kumar. He may be adjusted in the Union cabinet or the Rajya Sabha or be made the governor of a BJP-ruled state. Cornered from all sides and left with no alternative, "sushasan babu" ('Mister Good Governance') as he is called, will most likely accept it to salvage his honour.