Bihar Election 2025: Will Prashant Kishor emerge as kingmaker in power battle?

Will Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraaj Party become the kingmaker in Bihar soon? 'PK,' as he is called by his friends and foes alike, kept himself out of the reckoning in any power play in Patna by not contesting the Bihar Election 2025. However, the former political strategist, who has been instrumental in making 'king' like Narendra Modi, MK Stalin, Jaganmohan Reddy, Arvind Kejriwal, and many more, may emerge as the real 'kingmaker.' Though most of the exit polls have predicted that the ruling coalition of NDA may return to power, it is being taken with a pinch of salt due to their dented credibility. RJD, the main driving force of the opposition alliance of Mahagathbandhan, is not likely to get a clear majority even if it emerges as the biggest political party. 

Bihar Assembly Election 2025

What happens if both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan fall short of a majority, with the newbie JSP getting 10-15 seats, as hoped by Prashant Kishor? Earlier, PK said that if his party does not get enough seats to play a decisive role in government formation, he would allow his MLAs to choose their own ways. It was interpreted as a possible tacit support for the NDA. It was alleged that the Jan Suraaj Party was trying to help the BJP by splitting the anti-establishment votes. However, PK busted this theory by accusing BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary of being involved in rampant corruption and buying a property worth Rs 200 crore. He also accused him of committing fraud by changing his name many times. The worst came when the deputy chief minister of Bihar was accused of committing a murder. Needless to say, he unnerved the saffron party. 

(Nitish Kumar, Chief Minister, Bihar)

Prashant Kishor, kingmaker

By hitting out at the BJP and slamming the Mahagathbandhan and fielding candidates to all 243 seats, the JSP has maintained an equidistance to both coalitions. Analysts believe that the former election strategist has deliberately positioned his party in a way that it can support either of the alliances. If the party wins 10-15 seats, as PK has hoped earlier, it will be at the cost of these coalitions, denting both to some extent. Those exit polls that have predicted the JSP to win 2-3 seats have also estimated it to garner 9.7% of votes, leaving the Congress behind. Analysts doubt these predictions. They point out that the party with 9.7% of popular votes should win about 10 seats. 

RJD-Mahagathbandhan strategy

Prashant Kishor tried social engineering by distributing tickets to the so-called upper castes as well as those from the OBC, EBC and the Muslims. If the voters from the marginalized communities opt to vote for the JSP after PK vociferously raised the issue of migration and vowed to stop it by creating more jobs, it may prove to be a game-changer and hit both the JD(U) and the RJD. However, Nitish Kumar's party may suffer more as it is in power and held responsible for failing to create jobs. Similarly, he has also tried to reach out to the upper castes by allotting them more tickets at a time when both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan are busy wooing the OBC, EBC, and SC communities in the wake of the Caste Survey 2023. This move may hit the saffron party, which is still more acceptable to the voters from the forward castes. 

(Leaders of the opposition alliance of Mahagathbandhan.)

As a shrewd and successful political strategist, PK has positioned his party in such a way that both alliances may approach him if they are short of the majority. This may make him the "kingmaker" of Bihar. Should the JSP get about 10 seats, he may be catapulted to a position from where he could dictate terms and bargain hard. Time will show what actually happens.