Bihar Election 2025: Will BJP reject Nitish Kumar, form own government with Samrat Chaudhary as CM? What next for NDA?

Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland where there is no BJP chief minister. With a lead of 91 seats at the time of writing this news, can the saffron party venture out to throw Nitish Kumar aside and form its own government with its own leader as the chief minister? Prime Minister Narendra Modi indicated to install his own man as the chief minister of the state last week. Campaigning for Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary at Tarapur, he declared that he would make him a "bada aadami" if he won the elections. He dropped the hint to elevate the deputy chief minister if the BJP gets enough number of seats. 

Will PM Modi do as he indicated? The ruling coalition of NDA is leading at 202 seats, with the BJP surging ahead at 92 seats and JD(U) at 82. With this, the electoral arithmetic in Bihar has taken a curious turn with the Lok Janshakti Party leading at 21 seats, the Jiten Manjhi-led HAM at 5, and the Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Morcha at 4. So, it is clear that the BJP (92), LJP (21), HAM (5) and RLP (4) take the total figure to 122 in the 243-member Bihar assembly. This is the halfway mark. So, the saffron party can form the government without the help of the JD(U).

(Deputy CM Samrat Chaudary with CM Nitish Kumar.)

Can Nitish Kumar join Mahagathbandhan?

However, the other side of the political equation is equally exciting. Mocked as "Paltu Ram" for switching sides, Nitish Kumar can choose the other option if he is not offered the office of the chief minister. With 82 seats of its own, the JD(U) can join hands with the opposition alliance. The RJD is leading in 26 seats, Congress in 4, and CPI(M) and CPI(ML) Liberation in one each. These numbers add up to 114, eight fewer than the halfway mark. However, Nitish Kumar can play the master stroke by inviting the Lok Janshakti Party and offering the deputy chief minister's office to Chirag Paswan. Ram Vilas Paswan's son has been positioning himself as an alternative to Nitish, and if he is made the deputy chief minister, he is most likely to join the bandwagon. With the reduced strength and Tejaswi trailing, it can be discussed.

(LJP leader Chirag Paswan)

The second option is to invite the HAM and the RPL; they collectively have 9 seats. All these three leaders have earlier worked along with Nitish Kumar, and they share ideology. In this scenario, Nitish will not have to offer the office of the deputy chief minister to either of them, as they would be happy to join if offered plum ministries. With fewer seats in their kitty, Nitish will also find them easier to handle. 

Will JD(U) split?

However, there is one more equally interesting aspect. With Nitish Kumar losing control over the party and having less say in ticket distribution, he may have lost the leverage in realpolitik. The BJP may engineer a split in JD(U) if Nitish tries to walk away to join hands with the RJD. So, he may not have too many options.