Bihar Election 2025: First phase to decide fate of Lalu Yadav's sons, will siblings return to opposite camps?

The high-octane poll campaign for the first phase of Bihar Elections 2025 will come to an end soon and the luck of two deputy chief ministers and the chief minister's face of the opposition coalition will be sealed. As Bihar goes to the polls on November 6, it will also decide the fate of Lalu Prasad Yadav's sons. The Yadav chieftain and the Bihar satrap have either ruled the state or influenced its politics while steering the opposition for more than three decades. The first phase of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 will decide the fate of his sons and some of the important faces of the ruling combine of the NDA. 

Tej Pratap Yadav contests from Mahua

The polling for Lalu Yadav's sons, Tejaswi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav, from Raghopur and Mahua, respectively, will be held on November 6. The Yadav chieftain's eldest son faces challenges from his own man, Mukesh Kumar Raushan, from his own pocket borough. Nothing can be more ironic. However, this is politics, the game of uncertainties, where the most unexpected results may emerge from the most unexpected quarters at the most unexpected time. Who could have told a few weeks ago that Tejaswi Yadav would field a sitting MLA against his elder brother from a seat earlier won easily by the Yadav chieftain's sibling? 

(Tej Pratap Yadav contests from Mahua.)

Tej Pratap Yadav first won from Mahua in 2015 before moving to Hasanpur in 2020. This constituency has always had a strong Yadav vote base, with a significant share of Scheduled Caste and Muslim voters, making it an ideal seat for the Yadav clan and the RJD, which has always banked on the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination. A key seat in Bihar’s political landscape, it has been a bastion of the charismatic leader Lalu Prasad Yadav. Lok Janshakti Party's candidate Sanjay Singh may make the situation more difficult for Tej Pratap. As Mahua witnesses three strong contenders from three important parties, a high-profile and closely watched battle is certain to happen, whatever the result may be. 

Bihar Assembly Election 2025

Located in the Rosera subdivision of Samastipur district, Hasanpur, once represented by former RJD leader Tej Pratap Yadav, has become a key area of interest for both the JD(U) and the RJD in the Bihar Assembly Elections, 2025. Tej Pratap Yadav won this seat in 2020 with a margin of 80,991 votes and defeated JD(U)’s Raj Kumar Ray, who could gather only 59,852 votes. However, Ray turned the tables in 2015 and won it with 63,094 votes. Since Lalu's son will not be contesting this constituency this time, it will be interesting to see if people of Hasanpur go back to Ray as their leader in the upcoming Bihar Elections 2025.

Acid test for Tejaswi Yadav

Lalu's younger son, Tejaswi Yadav, the chief minister's face of the opposition coalition, the Mahagathbandhan, has put his foot down in his pocket borough. Lalu Prasad Yadav won this seat in 1995 and 2000, and was elected chief minister both times. His wife, Rabri Devi, also represented Raghopur three times, first in the 2000 by-election, and later in the two assembly polls. Tejashwi Yadav has been the sitting MLA since 2015.

(Tejaswi Yadav contests from Raghopur.)

Satish Kumar Yadav upsets Rabri Devi

However, the BJP holds the trump card, as it has fielded Satish Kumar Yadav against the former deputy chief minister of Bihar. He is the person who shocked everyone in 2010 by causing a major upset by defeating Rabri Devi with a margin of 13,006 votes. While the lesser-known Yadav secured 64,222 votes, Rabri Devi could manage only 51,216. However, the victory was short-lived, as Satish lost to Tejashwi in both the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections.

Big fight in Lalu family bastion

Tejaswi Yadav proved his popularity in 2015 by winning the Raghopur seat with a margin of 22,733 votes. He garnered 91,236 votes, while Satish received only 68,503 votes. Five years later, he cemented his grip by defeating Satish Yadav by a bigger margin of 38,174 votes. Tejashwi received 97,404 votes, while Satish Yadav could secure only 59,230 votes. Jan Suraaj Party's Chanchal Singh may garner a good chunk of votes and split the electorate, proving himself to be what people call a 'vote katwa' in Bihar. Analysts believe he is most likely to make inroads into the support base of Tejaswi, as he is the face of the constituency. Analysts don't expect a major upset from Raghopur in the Bihar Election 2025. However, as the beauty of democracy lies in the unexpected results from the most unexpected quarters, the possibility of a coup exists, at least theoretically.