Bihar Election 2025: Can Tejaswi Yadav defy exit polls, lead Mahagathbandhan to power?

Will RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav become the Chief Minister of Bihar in a few days? The 35-year-old son of Lalu Prasad Yadav has already established himself as a Bihar satrap, with a tight grip on his party and his father's legacy. Call it political sagacity, prudence, or compromise, he agreed to serve as the deputy chief minister to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in 2022, despite having more MLAs than him. The man known for commitment to political ideology and an uncompromising stance against communal forces, Tejaswi, is poised to become the chief minister of the state. Both of his parents, Lalu Yadav and Rabri Devi, have enjoyed the privilege of becoming the chief minister of Bihar. It all depends on whether the opposition alliance of Mahagathbandhan gets the majority in the Bihar Election 2025. 

Bihar Assembly Election 2025

Most of the exit polls have predicted a return of the ruling coalition of the NDA. However, the Yadav scion has rejected the exit polls and questioned their credibility and relevance. He said, "Yesterday, people stood in long queues during voting, even until six or seven in the evening. People patiently waited to cast their votes. And while voting was still underway, exit polls began to emerge. We neither live in false optimism nor in misunderstanding. These surveys are brought out merely to create a psychological impact, to put pressure on the officials involved in the election process." He added, "If you ask any of those showing these surveys about the sample size, none of them can tell you. Neither the sample size nor the criteria of the survey have been made public."

NDA vs Mahagathbandhan

Some of the reporters toiling hard at ground zero and political observers trying to map the mood of the voters and gauge the political temperature from every nook and corner of Bihar, have a different feedback. Most of the people reporting from the field have indicated that it may not be a sweeping verdict for any party or political alliance. Some of the analysts believe that both the ruling coalition and the opposition alliance may have a neck-and-neck fight, with Mahagathbandhan having an edge. Some of them believe that the Tejaswi Yadav-led alliance may have enough seats to stake a claim to form the government. 

Will Tejaswi Yadav lead Mahagathbandhan to power?

Echoing the sentiments, Tejaswi Yadav told journalists, "After the election ended, we collected feedback from people, and the information we received has been extremely positive. In the past, such positive feedback never used to come. You can say that the feedback we received this time is even better than what we got during the 1995 elections."
He added, "Everyone has voted in large numbers against this government, and this time, change is definitely going to happen. I had already said that the results will come on the 14th, and the oath ceremony will be held on the 18th."

Bihar exit poll results

This euphoria may turn sour if the exit polls come true. While Dainik Bhaskar projected 145-160 seats for the NDA, 73-91 for the Mahagathbandhan, and 0-3 for the Jan Suraaj, the Matrize Exit Poll has forecast the NDA likely to win 147-167 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 70-90, and the Jan Suraaj between 0-2 seats. Similarly, the People's Pulse has predicted 133-159 seats for the NDA, 75-101 for the Mahagathbandhan and 0-5 for Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraaj party.

However, the credibility of the exit polls is under scrutiny. Their credibility received a severe beating after they predicted the NDA to win 370 to 405 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, contrary to the actual result. The ruling coalition got only 292 seats, with the BJP winning only 240, less than the majority in the 543-member house. Earlier, the exit polls predicted a majority for the BJP in the 2020 West Bengal Assembly Election. The ruling TMC won 213 seats, more than a two-thirds majority, while the saffron party got 77 in the 294-member house. Tejaswi Yadav can still pin his hopes on the feedback he has received; he cannot be ruled out for now.