Happy endings are no more the norm for Bollywood production houses. The trend, perceptible over the last few years, has become disturbingly familiar in 2009. With movies bombing and losses mounting — Rs300 crore and still counting — the script is going awfully awry.

As the sizzling chemistry between lead pair Saif Ali Khan and Kareena Kapoor failed to send the cash boxes ringing and Kurbaan collections nosedived, it was the same old story playing out. The latest from Karan Johar’s Dharma Productions had a poor 40-50 % opening this weekend, say analysts.

“Kurbaan managed a modest 30% opening on Friday across all our properties,” informs Vishal Kapur, COO of Fun Cinemas. On Saturday, says Kapur, the film garnered only an additional 5%. In Cinemax theatres across India, the film opened to a slightly better 45% on Friday, but didn’t go up by a great margin on Saturday.

2009 has already been a woeful year for producers. Barring a couple of stray successes, it has been a bloodbath at the box office. Almost 90% of financiers have lost money.

Experts attribute this to three  reasons. First, the second quarter saw no movies releasing due to the stand-off between the producers and multiplex owners. This meant no box office revenue was generated for around three months.

Second, the ripple effect of the strike saw people borrow more money at higher bank interest rates.  The rate is as high as 14-15% for public banks and 18-24% for private financiers compared to 3% in Hollywood. And there is no relaxation allowed for interest payment if movies don’t release on time.

Finally, pricing of movies took a beating with recession setting in as producers had sold their products at overwhelming rates with stars too charging astronomical amounts. Such movies did not give the same returns, forget profits. Like rights for London Dreams, Blue and others were apparently sold Rs120 crore and more. But trade analysts say such movies, especially London Dreams, tanked at the box office leaving a hole in the pockets of the makers.

After All the Best (starring Ajay Devgn and Bipasha Basu) and Ajab Prem Ki Ghazab Kahani (Ranbir Kapoor and Katrina Kaif) became hits and others like Wake Up Sid and Kaminey did relatively well, analysts felt things were on the upswing. They were banking on the last two months of the year to see a cut in losses. But with Kurbaan not living up to the hype, the hopes of the industry have taken a hit.

Now a lot rests on four back-to-back big star cast movies — De Dana Dan (Akshay Kumar and Katrina Kaif in the lead), Paa (with Amitabh and Abhishek Bachchan in a unique father-son role), Rocket Singh Salesman (starring Ranbir Kapoor) and the Christmas release, Aamir Khan’s 3 Idiots.

“Kurbaan not doing well is a body blow. The losses are set to rise for sure. Box office collections account for around 50% of revenue. The industry is bleeding with hardly any hits and the losses are way over the Rs300 crore mark,’’ said veteran trade analyst Taran Adarsh.

He added: “In 2007, Taare Zameen Par and Welcome; and in 2008, Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi and Ghajini managed to cut losses. This year needs the next four films to be blockbusters to revive the box office.”

- With inputs from Annirudha Guha