With La La Land scoring 14 nominations at the Academy Awards (aka the Oscars) this year, it could go either way for the film. It could win spectacularly and sweep the awards, breaking a few records along the way. Or it could go half and half. It all depends on how Moonlight fares on the big night. Or Fences, for that matter.

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If one goes purely by buzz, politics and predictability will rule the evening. In any case, here are our predictions for Oscars 2017...

BEST PICTURE

ArrivalFencesHacksaw RidgeHell or High WaterHidden FiguresLa La LandLionManchester by the SeaMoonlight

OUR PICK: La La Land. Don’t let the number of strong contenders fool you. Despite it being #OscarsNotSoWhite this year, the jury is likeliest to vote for L3 in droves. Not to mention it has swept up every award this season in this category. And the fact that it has a record-tying 14 nominations. The chances of Moonlight upsetting the party are quite slim.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the SeaAndrew Garfield, Hacksaw RidgeRyan Gosling, La La LandViggo Mortensen, Captain FantasticDenzel Washington, Fences

OUR PICK: Denzel has won the Screen Actors Guild award in this category, which is usually a good indicator for an Oscar win. But Casey has been consistent this award season. With the resurfacing of the 2010 sexual harassment charges (which he settled out of court) issue, he is quite likely to lose this one to Denzel, if one goes by what Oscar pundits say.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Isabelle Huppert, ElleRuth Negga, LovingNatalie Portman, JackieEmma Stone, La La LandMeryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

OUR PICK: Emma Stone’s going to win this one, despite a fantastic turn by Ruth Negga and a beautiful performance by Isabelle Huppert, who also won the Golden Globe. Count on it.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mahershala Ali, MoonlightJeff Bridges, Hell or High WaterLucas Hedges, Manchester by the SeaDev Patel, LionMichael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

OUR PICK: Mahershala as Juan in Moonlight is a joy to behold. He’s already won the SAG. So there’s that to consider.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Viola Davis, FencesNaomie Harris, MoonlightNicole Kidman, LionOctavia Spencer, Hidden FiguresMichelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

OUR PICK: Smart money and track record point the finger clearly in Viola’s direction (Davis won a Tony for the stage version, and several awards for her film role). No one else comes close.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Kubo and the Two StringsMoanaMy Life as a ZucchiniThe Red TurtleZootopia

OUR PICK: Zootopia won at the Golden Globes and the PGA, while Kubo won the BAFTA. Could go either way, but the money is on Zootopia, for preaching tolerance in our times, without getting too preachy.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

ArrivalLa La LandLionMoonlightSilence

OUR PICK: La La Land is a favourite, despite a couple of strong contenders.

COSTUME DESIGN

AlliedFantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemFlorence Foster JenkinsJackieLa La Land

OUR PICK: Fantastic Beasts could sweep this one up. That is, if Jackie doesn’t.

DIRECTING

ArrivalHacksaw RidgeLa La LandManchester by the SeaMoonlight

OUR PICK: Damien Chazelle for La La Land. This one is going to be part of the L3 juggernaut. After a Golden Globe, BAFTA and a Directors Guild Award, this category is in the pocket for Damien.

DOCUMENTARY

(FEATURE)

Fire at SeaI Am Not Your NegroLife, AnimatedO.J.: Made in America13th

OUR PICK: With a Globe and a PGA for OJ and a BAFTA for 13th, it could go either way. But we’re going with OJ.

DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

Extremis4.1 MilesJoe’s ViolinWatani: My HomelandThe White Helmets

OUR PICK: Two films on the Syria crisis. One is most likely to win. The White Helmets.

FILM EDITING

ArrivalHacksaw RidgeHell or High WaterLa La LandMoonlight

OUR PICK: La La won the Editors Guild along with Arrival in two separate categories, while Hacksaw picked up the BAFTA. Going with gut here and picking La La...

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of MineA Man Called OveThe SalesmanTannaToni Erdmann

OUR PICK: Toni Erdmann (Germany) and A Man Called Ove (Sweden) were favourites to win since the nominations were announced.  It’s going to be either one of the two, we feel. If asked to pick one, we’ll go with Toni. Yes, despite the recent buzz around Asghar Farhadi’s The Salesman.

MAKE-UP

A Man Called OveStar Trek BeyondSuicide Squad

OUR PICK: In a three-way tie, always pick the one you’re most likely to remember. In our case, that film quite definitely is Star Trek Beyond.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

JackieLa La LandLionMoonlightPassengers

OUR PICK: La La Land. The only musical in the category. Really thinking of anyone else, here?

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from TrollsCity Of Stars from La La Land“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

OUR PICK: With a twofer in this category, it’s a given that La La is going to take this one. We’re going with City Of Stars. Were L3 not in this category, we’d have gone with Moana’s How Far....

PRODUCTION DESIGN

ArrivalFantastic Beasts and Where to Find ThemHail, Caesar!La La LandPassengers

OUR PICK: Despite our love for Fantastic Beasts... La La is lapping this one up.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Blind VayshaBorrowed TimePear Cider and CigarettesPearlPiper

OUR PICK: Piper, for the win. In the unlikely event that Pearl pulls off an upset.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Ennemis IntérieursLa Femme et le TGVSilent NightsSingTimecode

OUR PICK: Ennemis Intérieurs, for the timeliness of its subject.

SOUND EDITING

ArrivalDeepwater HorizonHacksaw RidgeLa La LandSully

OUR PICK:  Hacksaw Ridge. War films are a favourite in this category, historically.

SOUND MIXING

ArrivalHacksaw RidgeLa La LandRogue One: A Star Wars Story13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

OUR PICK: La La Land. Despite stiff competition from Hacksaw Ridge.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater HorizonDoctor StrangeThe Jungle BookKubo and the Two StringsRogue One: A Star Wars Story

OUR PICK: This one is loaded with probables, but the only one that dazzled us more than the rest is, without a shred of doubt, The Jungle Book.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

ArrivalFencesHidden FiguresLionMoonlight

OUR PICK: Moonlight ticks all the right boxes. This one is Barry Jenkins’ for the taking.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Hell or High WaterLa La LandThe LobsterManchester by the Sea20th Century Women

OUR PICK: Kenneth Lonergan is widely tipped by many in the know to win this one. He wrote and directed Manchester By The Sea, a film that has no real competition in this category. Not even La La Land.