WTC final scenario: What if India lose or secure a draw in Ahmedabad and Sri Lanka beat New Zealand in 1st Test

The World Test Championship has added a new layer of excitement to the traditional format of Test cricket. Despite some detractors, it has proven to be a valuable tool for analyzing and comparing teams from around the world. This was particularly evident when India faced off against Australia in the third Border Gavaskar Trophy 2023 Test. 

Considering the current state of the series, India undoubtedly holds the upper hand with their impressive 2-1 lead after securing victories in Kanpur and Delhi. Although their recent defeat in Indore may have dampened the spirits of their fans, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the overall outcome of the series.

Australia has officially qualified for the ICC World Test Championship 2021-23 final, which will take place at The Oval from June 7th to June 11th. The baggy greens have secured a remarkable 68.52% points won out of points contested (PCT) figure, with 11 victories in 18 matches.

Rohit Sharma's team has been on a roll, winning 10 out of their 19 matches in the current WTC cycle.  While Sri Lanka has not been as successful as Indian team, they are still in the running for the final. With a PCT of 53.33%, thanks to five wins in ten matches, they are the only remaining team, apart from Indian team, to have a chance at qualifying for the final. 

A look at all the possible qualification scenarios for the WTC 2021-23 final:

India has the opportunity to secure a second-place finish in the World Test Championship standings with a victory in the ongoing 4th test. Currently, India has accumulated 135 points from 18 matches, with a PCT (percentage of points earned out of total points available) of 63%. Even if Sri Lanka manages to achieve a clean sweep against the Kiwis in their away series, their PCT will not exceed 61%, resulting in their elimination from the competition.

If Australia grants Sri Lanka another reprieve in the fourth Test by either drawing or winning, they may still have a chance to stay in the hunt. However, it seems unlikely that India will draw the fourth Test, as red-ball matches in the nation are becoming increasingly shorter, often ending in just three days. In the event that India does draw, they will finish their league stage campaign with 127 points and a PCT of 59%.

In this scenario, Sri Lanka's path to the final of the competition hinges on securing a couple of victories. If successful, they will have the opportunity to battle it out against Australia for the coveted silverware. Achieving two wins would result in the Lankan team ending their league campaign with a commendable 88 points from 12 matches, equating to a PCT of 61%.

If India loses the fourth Test, their journey will end with a 57% PCT and 123 points. Even if Sri Lanka wins the two-match series against the Blackcaps with one win and a draw, they will still be in third place with a 56% PCT and 80 points.

Therefore, regardless of the outcome of the fourth Test for India, Sri Lanka's task remains straightforward but incredibly difficult: to achieve a whitewash against New Zealand on their home turf.

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