WTC final qualification scenario: What if India draw or lose 4th Test vs Australia?

India is gearing up to face Australia in the highly anticipated 4th Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad. The Indian team began the series with a bang, securing comprehensive victories in the first two matches against the visitors. However, the third Test in Indore proved to be a setback for Rohit Sharma and his team, as Australia dealt them a humiliating 9-wicket loss.

A win in the 3rd Test match would have guaranteed India a spot in the final of the World Test Championships. Unfortunately, they now have to wait for their fate to be decided in the final game. Despite this setback, the Indian team remains determined to bounce back and secure a victory against their formidable opponents.

India WTC final qualification scenario:

First scenario

If India manages to secure a 3-1 victory against Australia in the Border-Gavaskar series, they will achieve a PCT of 63.0, placing them as the second team in the points table. However, even with a drop in their PCT to 65.0, Australia will still qualify for the WTC final by taking the top spot in the WTC points table. 

Sri Lanka's 2-0 victory against New Zealand will not have any impact in this scenario, as they will end with a PCT of 61.0, placing them in third place behind Australia and India. Therefore, a 3-1 result in the India vs Australia Test series will secure both teams' berths in the WTC final.

Second scenario

If the match ends in a draw and India wins the series 2-1, Sri Lanka will have a chance to outplay India in the World Test Championship (WTC) final. However, India will have to hope that Sri Lanka does not win the Test series against New Zealand 2-0. If Sri Lanka does manage to achieve this feat, they will surpass India in the WTC points table and take the coveted 2nd spot with a PCT of 61.0.

Third scenario

If Australia manages to outplay India in the final Test, the India vs Australia Test series will end in a 2-2 tie. In such a scenario, Sri Lanka has a chance to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final if they can defeat New Zealand 2-0. However, it's important to note that Sri Lanka needs to whitewash the Kiwis in the series. A 1-0 victory or a 1-1 tie will not be enough for Sri Lanka to secure the 2nd spot in the World Test Championship points table.

Therefore, India's qualification to the WTC final is highly dependent on the outcome of the Sri Lanka vs New Zealand series. However, it's worth noting that Sri Lanka will be playing on away soil, making it a challenging task for them to whitewash New Zealand in the series.

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