As the PM Modi government tables the last Budget of the 16th Lok Sabha on Friday, two months ahead of the general elections, the document could be its most watched one.
For the PM Modi Cabinet, which is facing increasing criticism over several issues like rising farmer distress, loss of jobs and a lower growth rate, the Budget will be a do or die attempt. The government is likely to be focused on wooing its three key constituencies -- farmers, the middle class-women-senior citizens segment and small businesses.
While the Congress has already announced minimum income support much to everyone's surprise, the Centre could also be planning a version of its own, as per rating agency India Ratings. It estimates that if announced, the scheme could cost the Centre Rs 1.5 trillion per annum or 0.7 per cent of the GDP.
An earlier attempt to have direct benefit transfer scheme for farmers could not pass through due to a host of reasons, including an estimate of Rs 2.28 lakh crore. The Centre could bring in a minimum guarantee scheme for poor farmers. In the offing are also farmers' markets.
Apart from the proposal for the 10 per cent reservation quota for an annual family income of Rs 8 lakh, the Centre could also announce an increase from Rs 50,000 in basic exemption limit to Rs 3 lakh; Rs 3.5 lakh for senior citizens and Rs 5-5.5 lakh for senior citizens above 80 years of age. Sops for working women could include a limit of Rs 3.5 lakh.
Before the session was to commence, there was speculation that the government will pass a full Budget instead of an interim one, as is customary for an outgoing government, due to a Whatsapp message let out by the commerce ministry that read, "Do not refer Budget 2019-20 as interim Budget, it is officially referred as general Budget 2019-20." This led to confusion and ended with interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal stating that the Budget will be called interim Budget 2019-20. It is also expected that the PM Modi government will bring in sops for farmers and the middle class, possibly bringing in relaxation in tax slabs.
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