India, other emerging markets to drive $5 trillion aircraft demand

Growing passenger traffic in India and other emerging markets would help generate aircraft demand worth about US $5 trillion in 20 years and the fleet across aviation industry would more than double by 2034, Airbus said on Tuesday.

The domestic traffic flow in India alone is estimated to grow nearly 6 times in this period, making it one of the fastest growing markets globally, even as a survey by Airbus has identified Mumbai and Delhi airports among the largely congested ones across the world.

Releasing its Global Markets Forecast here at the 51st Paris International Air Show, Airbus said that "from the world's first commercial flight in 1914, to today's 32 million flights annually, aviation has become part and parcel of our everyday lives.

"With some three billion air passengers, and 50 million tonnes of freight carried every year by planes, it is estimated that aviation contributes US $2.4 trillion annually to global GDP".

In the next 20 years, global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6% a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft above 100 seats (31,800 passenger and 800 freighters greater than 10 tonnes) worth US $4.9 trillion, it said.

"By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today's 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel efficient types," Airbus said.

Emerging economies which collectively account for six billion people, are the real engines of worldwide traffic growth. They will grow at 5.8% a year compared to more advanced economies, like those in Western Europe or North America, which are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8%.

Emerging economies also account for 31% of worldwide private consumption which will rise to 43% by 2034.

"Economic growth rates in emerging economies such as China, India, Middle East, Africa and Latin America will exceed the world average. A knock on effect is that middle classes will double to almost 5 billion people," Airbus said.

The tendency to travel by air is increasing, it said, adding that in emerging economies, 25% of the population take one trip per year, and this will increase sharply to 74% by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year.

"Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world's biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for strong air traffic growth," said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers. 

"Today, we are ramping up production of the A350 XWB and we are studying further production rate increases beyond rate 50 for single aisle aircraft to meet the increasing demand for air transportation," Leahy said.

Long-haul traffic will increasingly be to, from or between aviation mega-cities, rising from 90% (0.9 million passengers a day) currently to 95% (2.3 million passengers a day) by 2034.

In the widebody market, Airbus forecasts a trend towards higher capacity aircraft on long-haul and an increasingly wide range of regional and domestic sectors.

As a result, Airbus forecasts a requirement for some 9,600 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at some US $2.7 trillion. This represents 30% of all new aircraft deliveries and 55% by value.

Airbus said it will be especially well placed to win a leading share of the widebody market, with the A330, A350 and A380 representing the most modern and comprehensive product line available today from 200 to over 500 seats.

Globally traffic growth has led to average aircraft size growing by 46% since the 1980s with airlines selecting larger aircraft or up-sizing existing backlogs.