Can geopolitical risks like Venezuela crisis, Trump's threat slow India's growth? UN projects GDP at...

Will the geopolitical factors like the US attack on Venezuela and Donald Trump's warning to countries like Cuba, Colombia, Iran, Canada and the Danish territory of Greenland impact the Indian economy? Will its GDP growth rate fall due to the disruption in the global supply chain? Will India's GDP growth rate settle down to 6.6% in the financial year 2026? At a time when the risks of renewed supply disruptions remain high due to conflicts, climate-related disasters, trade fragmentation, and geopolitical tensions, the gloomy economic scenario cannot be ruled out. 

UN Economy Report

In its report 'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026', the UN has said that the world economy is likely to face the risk of a prolonged period of slower growth compared with the pre-pandemic era. The world body in its report published Thursday projected India's GDP growth at a robust 6.6 per cent at a time when the global economic growth may slow down to 2.7 per cent due to geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty. It says, "Strong demand in major markets may partially offset the US tariff hike impact on India." 

(The US eyes Venezuelan crude oil.)

India GDP growth forecast 2026

Though the UN report has lowered the estimate for India's growth rate from 7.4 per cent earlier, it is similar to the IMF's forecast, which sees India as the only major economy that will post an above 6 per cent growth rate in 2025-26. The report also says that the geopolitical risks, continuing policy uncertainty, and fiscal challenges cloud the global economic outlook. Earlier in 2025, a sharp rise in the US tariffs unsettled the trade environment, but the world economy proved more resilient than expected. The UN report has predicted that global growth is expected to moderate in 2026 as weaker international trade may be offset only partially. Besides, it also highlights that inflation has eased considerably in most economies, yet the rising cost of living continues to strain household budgets and exacerbate inequality. 

India 2026 growth projection UN report

On the other hand, according to the advance estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics Wednesday, India's real GDP growth rate may be at 7.4 per cent in FY 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent during FY 2024-25. The economic growth increased to a robust 8.2 per cent in the second quarter (July-September) of the current financial year from the corresponding figure of 5.6 per cent during the same quarter of FY 2024-25. The figures show that India continues to be the world's fastest-growing major economy despite global headwinds such as the US tariff hikes. Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had forecast India to be the only economy that is expected to clock an over 6 per cent growth rate in 2025-26, as the US tariff turmoil is expected to disrupt world trade and slow down the growth of the global economy.

(With input from IANS.)