MUMBAI: It’s an industry heavily dependent on the US, but the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry is divided over the impact of the recession there. Some warn of a disaster, others see opportunities in the downturn.

Samir Chopra, president of industry body Business Process Industry Association of India (BPIAI), believes 2,50,000 jobs may be lost before the end of this fiscal. The association, which represents a large number of small and big BPO players, feels the real impact of the recession is yet to be felt.

According to the association, the sector has so far seen only 10,000-12,000 employees being laid off, mostly in the last three months. In comparison, the US economy lost 5,33,000 jobs in November and 1.2 million jobs in the last three months as companies downsized or went out of business. BPAI is pushing for soft loans and tax concessions from the government to help the sector.  However, the evidence on the ground is mixed.

While most BPOs have felt a definite impact on their prices and have even lost some clients, on the whole, business flow has remained stable. Pranit Banthia, head of Ahmedabad-based Hi-Tech Outsourcing, confirmed that there has been a dip in the quantum of work his company gets in its engineering and IT services division. Banthia, who employs around 1,000 people, said he hasn’t fired anyone.

“We don’t know if it will continue to be bad. As of now, to compensate for the downturn in engineering and IT, we have had some extra work come through in our data processing unit. So, we haven’t felt the need to lay off people,” Banthia said. The company has added 25 new employees in the last six weeks.

The story is in the same in other places, be it the small Gurgaon-based accountancy outsourcing firm Ekam Infotech or the Raman Roy-owned high-end specialised Quatrro BPO. New contracts have got stuck halfway while some old clients have disappeared altogether. Avneet Bajwa, director and CEO of Ekam, said, “We have done our share of re-pricing.”

Roy said, “Some of the new contracts have not materialised. Some customers want us to extend their credit limit from 90 days to 200 days and some have gone bankrupt. But it’s wrong to say there are no opportunities for growth.”

The 2,500-strong Quattro sees opportunities. “If you can give me 200 lawyers trained in foreclosure proceedings, I will hire them right away. With the high level of mergers and acquisitions, we can help foreign companies integrate their systems. The reality is that there is still new business coming in,” Roy said.

Salil Agrawal, practice head at Eicher Consulting Services and a BPO industry veteran, feels it is a matter of reorientation as the nature of the jobs changes.