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If this scenario comes true, kharif operations will be undertaken under favourable seasonal conditions, paving the way for a good harvest of food and cash crops during 2010-11.
To a government at its wit’s end on how to douse the inflationary fires, weather pundits hold out the promise of a very good monsoon season ahead.
According to the second stage forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the precipitation during the four months ending September 2010 is likely to 102% of the long-period average of 890 mm for the country as a whole.
During July, which is of crucial importance from the point of kharif sowings, weathermen are equally optimistic - the rainfall may be 98% of the normal of 293 mm for the month and this is expected to be followed by a sustained monsoon activity in August as well, for which the projected quantum is 101% of the normal of 262 mm for this period.
If this scenario comes true, kharif operations will be undertaken under favourable seasonal conditions, paving the way for a good harvest of food and cash crops during 2010-11.
Already, till June 24, cumulative rainfall has been 89% of the long-period average and despite some delay in the onset of the monsoon in several parts of the country, the performance thus far is good.
The latest forecast, which is an update of the one issued in April, is more refined and takes into account more up-to- date information on various factors that have a bearing on the south west monsoon.
In purely quantitative terms, the IMD says that, apart from the country as a whole, all the four geographical regions too are slated to receive good rains during this season.
In North-west, North-east and South Peninsula, rainfall may be in excess of normal by a small margin during the June- September months and only marginally less in the South peninsula.
Thus, spatially too, the current monsoon may be in stark contrast to its performance last year when the actual regional precipitation ranged between 64% of the long-period average in the north-west and 96% in the south peninsula.
The all-India forecast is based on a six-parameter ensemble statistical model with an error margin of 4% on either side.
For the region-wise forecast, recourse was made to a multi-linear regression model with an error margin of 9%.
For predicting the all-India rainfall during July and August, use was made of the principle component regression model that has an error margin of 8%.
Thus, the forecast for the country as a whole is made with greater degree of precision than the other two forecasts.
IMD also notes that, experimental forecasts by other agencies in India and abroad too are hopeful of a good monsoon season in the current agricultural year.
It says that, “a majority of statistical and dynamic models suggest normal to above normal monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole”.
Though reassuring the news emanating from the IMD, monsoon forecasting is still in its infancy and is a complex task.
Last year, virtually in all the areas - all-India rainfall, region-precipitation and monthly forecast for August - the predictions were off the mark.
With this track record, the fact that, for the South peninsula for the June-September period and for July for the country as a whole, though the weather experts were proved to be correct, still they were more wrong than right in 2009.
Moreover, the forecast is confined to only rains in quantitative terms. It does not say much about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall which also matters in determining the fate of the kharif crop.
But, a bountiful monsoon is the need for the hour for boosting agricultural production and economic growth, as well as to tame the inflationary beast that is roaming freely in our midst.
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