TECH RING: Total shipments for 4G devices grew to 215 million by the end of 2018, against 75 million in 2016
The 4G device shipments, including mobiles, tablets, data cards, have almost trebled in the last two years since the entry of new player Reliance Jio in the telecom segment.
The total shipments for 4G devices grew to 215 million by the end of 2018, against 75 million in 2016, growing almost three times, according to data from Cyber Media Research.
The share of 4G devices in overall shipments grew to 64% in 2018 from just 31% in 2016, the data showed.
Reliance Jio disrupted the telecom market with its entry in September 2016 and it opened up 4G for users like never before. Today, India is one of the largest data consuming markets in the world.
According to our estimates, 4G would account for 75% of the mobile handset (including 4G smartphones and feature phones) user base by 2022, Cyber Media Research Head - Industry Intelligence Group Prabhu Ram said.
By 2022, 2G feature phones will still contribute around 20% of the user base and fast forward to 2025, 2G will dip to single-digit percentages, and 5G will account for less than 10% of the user base, he said.
With 4G services, the data consumption on mobile devices has hit the roof, but there are still 500 million users who are not connected through internet – 2G subscribers mainly using mobile for voice services. According to Nokia's annual Mobile Broadband India Traffic (MBiT) Index, the mobile data traffic in India grew 109% in 2018, with 4G alone contributing 92%. The average data usage grew 69% in 2018 to touch 10GB a user per month in December. Videos have been the main driver for rising data consumption.
"With growing 4G adoption and backed by affordable data plans, monthly data consumption is on the rise. For mobile users, affordable 4G translates into heavy content consumption, whether it be via videos or music. For telcos, increasing content consumption translates into a potential new revenue stream. This is a new reality that telcos cannot afford to ignore in light of declining data tariffs. As such, devising new content monetisation models for price-sensitive consumers would be a key part of telco agenda," he said.
Talking about 5G market in India, Ram said while India's policy intent is to be a first-mover and embrace 5G by 2020, there are still some dark clouds casting a shadow on India's preparedness. "Whether it be telco preparedness or debts pile-up, spectrum timelines or the costs associated with initial investment on 5G equipment, this a dynamic and fluid situation," he said.
Some smartphone brands may potentially introduce premium 5G-capable smartphones in India, high device costs and lack of clarity on use cases may not translate into significant consumer interest, Ram said.
However, 2G will co-exist with 4G, though with a declining share. "2G will continue to survive, despite its share declining as 4G reaches a majority scale. India's hinterland will continue to depend on 2G for their communication. In their world context, they cannot afford smartphones, and do not have the use cases to justify buying one either," CMR's Narinder Kumar said.
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According to our estimates, 4G would account for 75% of the mobile handset (including 4G smartphones and feature phones) user base by 2022, Cyber Media Research Head - Industry Intelligence Group Prabhu Ram said.
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