DNA Money Edit: Oil price may deal a crude blow to India

Oil is rising again. That's bad news for India, where the economy is already under a little strain, especially amid allegations that the spoils from the previous fall in crude prices were not channelised effectively. Oil price touched a five-month high on Monday with Brent crude hovering around $74-a barrel mark. The sustained rise in prices was partly due to the fear that US President Trump would impose sanctions on the use of Iranian crude by countries like India, China and others post May 2 when a 180-day period of waiver of the US sanctions ends.

If Iran, the second-largest producer in Opec group countries, is not able to export oil, it will take away 1 million barrels a day from the global market, which might push up crude prices to reach $78-$80 levels. This comes at a time when Canada has put self-imposed production cut since January to prop up price of Canadian crude. The move by Canada and Opec countries has taken away 1.5 million barrels a day from the market.

The only hope is that the current US-China trade discord and weakening global economy might prevent any sharp rises in the short term. The deficit triggered by the closure of Iran as a source could also be met partly by an expected rise in supplies from the US and Brazil.