SNS is influential, but not a political game changer yet

With the country set to witness Lok Sabha polls in 2014, the impact of social media on influencing voters‘ choices has become a hot topic.

Politicians, too, have left no stone unturned, with many of them making their presence felt through Twitter and Facebook to influence voters.

A recent study, jointly conducted by IRIS Knowledge Foundation and Internet and Mobile Association of India, says of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, social media is likely to influence about 160 in the next general elections.

The study did a check on the total number of Facebook users in each of the 543 constituencies, and termed the ones where the numbers of users account for over 10% of the voting population as high impact constituencies. The study further revealed that more than 35% of the constituencies won by the Congress and the opposition party, the BJP, in the 2009 general election fell in high-impact constituencies.

A few days ago, Facebook introduced a feature for its Indian users called Register to Vote. Through this platform, people can share status updates and individual stories on voter registration.

Long way to go
While the study has successfully established social media as a decisive political tool, experts feel that this is just the beginning and there is still time till the actual impact of social media is felt in general elections in the country.

“Whatever the data says, I am actually doubtful on how much impact the social media will have on the results of general elections,” says Yashwant Deshmukh, founder, C-voter.

India is still considered traditional when it comes to the use of social media. Not everyone in India has access to the internet, and since they constitute the majority of voters in the country, a crucial part of the population is left out.

According to the provisional census data, of India’s 1.21 billion population, 833 million people live in rural India and 377 million in urban India.

“Unlike their urban counterparts, people in small towns are believe in the power of voting. Though, youth in small towns do have access to Facebook, they are occasional users and hence, the medium will have minimal impact on them as far as swinging party fortunes is concerned,” says Garima Tiwari, a political researcher.

As far as shaping opinion about a political party or candidate is concerned, youngsters are still influenced by family discussions.

“Social media is a mere means of communication for the youth.

They will hold their ground, vent anger and argue on a particular topic. However, opinions are shaped by the family and close friends,” says Deshmukh.

“When I was small, I saw my parents supporting a particular party.

When I started voting, I continued to vote for that party. I have never really discussed in details about politics on social media,” says Rakesh MG, a 27-year-old automobile engineer from the city.

With respect to Twitter users in the country, there is a very small group of users who are highly political in their views. Though there are constant disagreements and debates on about political developments in the micro-blogging site, the decisions of the users are mostly influenced by news reports than actually by engaging with the medium themselves, say experts.

Even the politicians who are active on social media are realistic about its usage.

Union minister Shashi Tharoor has said social networking sites alone cannot help win elections. “One cannot win elections by using only the social media, but it certainly is an asset as it gives new options of reaching to the public. We cannot escape from it,” Tharoor had said.

Strong medium by 2019
“I feel the number of internet users will explode manifold in the coming years, the same way as it happened with the number of mobile phone users,” says Deshmukh.

“I think social media will play a far more important role in the general elections of 2019. It will be a different ball game altogether,” says Tiwari.