Avian flu: When a scientist’s warnings and suggestions went totally unheard

In 2006, the bird flu scare was all around although no incidences of bird flu were reported anywhere around Bangalore. But now, despite thousands of birds dying due to the avian influenza at the Central Poultry Development Organisation & Training Institute (CPDOTI) in Hesaraghatta, authorities are yet to take cognisance of an expert’s advice given through an editorial in Current Science six years ago.

While the occurrence of the dreaded H5N1 avian influenza has been confirmed at the CPDOTI at Hesaraghatta, near the city, the state government might not have the necessary know-how or the facilities to tackle it effectively, warns Prof R Uma Shaanker, a crop physiologist from the University of Agricultural Sciences who had, as early as 2006, advised the state government to place contingency plans to tackle the disease through a guest editorial on the scientific journal, Current Science.

For one, the very suddenness with which the avian influenza took the authorities by surprise showed that forecasting the disease had completely failed, he said.

There needs to be a good monitoring and forecasting system in place by the government, said Shaanker. The forecasting programme can be built on any number of epidemiological models that are available.  

However, Shaanker’s editorial in Current Science had failed to attract the attention of the state government in being prepared for the worse-case scenarios. He lamented the lack of manpower to “undertake epidemiological studies” (studies pertaining to effect of a certain disease on a population and its spread trends), which are necessary for forecasting disease outbreaks and spreads.

“I am afraid that right now the government does not have any such programme in place,” he said. Although he told DNA on Tuesday — six years after the article appeared — that the warning applies even more now than ever before, the civic and health machinery in Bangalore has not budged an inch, leaving all the work to the state department of animal husbandry to primarily restrict disease spread from birds in the epicentre zone outwards.

“The forecasting programme with avian flu is very different from weather forecasting because you won’t be able to forecast when there will be a disease strike. But once there is bird flu occurrence, you can forecast the probability of neighbouring areas that are likely to be affected by this and how and in what conditions it might spread around. That will give the government a good handle to follow up on the outbreak. Better to prevent it rather than wait for it to affect other areas as well,” he said.

Sadly, when DNA spoke to the authorities on Monday, it was clear none of them within Bangalore city were prepared for this. Devaki Umesh, health commissioner, BBMP denied that the issue (bird flu outbreak) came under the BBMP as it had occurred outside its jurisdiction. “The state health department is supposed to look into the matter. It does not come under the BBMP,” she had said.

And Dr Dhanya Kumar, director, state department of health and family welfare, said, “As per the guidelines of government of India, the animal husbandry department is supposed to take care of it.” The animal husbandry department is indeed taking all precautions to restrict the disease within the 10-km radial zone around CPDOTI, and has also began culling birds within 1-km radius of the disease-struck institute.

“But there there needs to robust and current data so the government can mitigate action with immediacy and accordingly make decisions but I am afraid that does not exist right now,” Shaanker said.

He also touched upon the probability of disease spread among the human population, saying that if people are afflicted by the disease, their sustenance has to be ensured. “What sort of insurance systems can be put in place? How are these systems implementable? The last time there was an outbreak of bird flu there were no such contingencies in place,” he said.

Shaanker also suggested that the state government should put in place a buffer mechanism to cushion the blow for poultry farmers suffering losses due to culling. Just as in the case of crop failures wherein insurances are made available, private insurance can be taken out for poultry farmers and the government should be proactively involved in buffering the loss.

“I maintain what I had mentioned in Current Science about the lack of preparedness at the government’s end to tackle the recurrence of diseases such as bird flu or even swine flu,” he said.