No clear majority for BJP in Maharashtra: Has the Narendra Modi wave lost steam?

The Bharatiya Janata Party has achieved historic success in the just concluded Maharashtra assembly elections. The party won 122 seats and has garnered over 27% votes. The BJP or its earlier avatar Jan Sangh, has never achieved this number since 1960. Even when the Shiv Sena-BJP government came to power in 1995, BJP had won only 65 seats. This underlines how historic this win has been for the BJP.

And yet, the BJP hasn’t been able to attain a majority on its own. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held over 25 rallies in the state and appealed for a clear majority for the party. As the assembly elections were held on the back of the Lok Sabha elections, it was being claimed that there was a Modi wave in the state. It cannot be denied that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity has a lion’s share in the BJP victory. But this popularity has not been enough to get a clear majority. BJP party president Amit Shah’s caste arithmetic too hasn’t been entirely successful. BJP got seats in Mumbai-Thane (25), western Maharashtra (24), north Maharashtra (15), Vidarbha (35) and Konkan (1). Except Konkan, BJP is ahead of the Sena in all regions of Maharashtra. But the party must introspect why it could not do exceptionally well in Vidarbha and why it was rejected in Konkan. It is here that the BJP lost seats that could have come in handy for the majority. It could have done better even in north Maharashtra.

Had there been a Sena-BJP alliance, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to get 200 seats. We will know how both parties suffered after details emerge on voting, but breaking of alliance is one of the reasons why Sena’s strength was reduced in the Mumbai-Thane belt. MNS too damaged Sena here. And yet, we must give credit to Uddhav for the 60 seats Shiv Sena has won. This was the first assembly election in the absence of Bal Thackeray. Uddhav had played the biggest gamble of his life by playing hardball while negotiating with the BJP. The gamble could have proved costly as the alliance eventually broke. But Uddhav led the campaign from the front and managed to take on the Modi wave to a great extent. Now BJP doesn’t have an option to go for an alliance with the Shiv Sena. They will enjoy power if they negotiate in a mature manner now. Or else, the Nationalist Congress Party has already expressed willingness to go with the BJP by offering unsolicited support.

One expected Congress-NCP to meet their Waterloo in this election. The Congress-NCP government had faced innumerable allegations of corruption, misappropriations and inefficient governance. And yet, together the two parties have scored 85 seats between them (Congress 45, NCP 41). NCP has kind of managed to keep its bastion in western Maharashtra by winning 21 seats there and Congress was saved by the skin of their teeth as the party won 15 seats in Vidarbha. As many as 14 ministers from this government lost in these polls. Defeats for Narayan Rane, Rajendra Darda, Anil Deshmukh, Nitin Raut, Ganesh Naik, Satej Patil, Sachin Ahir and Harshwardhan Patil have been noteworthy. Each of them behaved like a satrap of their constituency. Rane was the chief of Congress’ campaign committee. The message from the voter is clear to them - you cannot continue to run your politics based on money and arrogance.

The biggest loser this election seems to be the MNS who had 13 legislators in the last assembly. They managed only 1 seat and not even a single one from Mumbai-Thane this time. Raj Thackeray might be pursued by the media, but the voters seem to be totally disenchanted with him. He had shown hope once upon a time. But today he is a living example of what happens when you don’t take politics seriously.

The biggest peculiarity however is the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s into the Maharashtra assembly. This party now has three MLAs in Maharashtra. We had seen how the party was influencing Muslims here in the Nanded municipal corporation. It was a clear indication that the Muslim voter was going away from the Congress. The entry of such religious fanatical parties is going to prove to be a headache in the future.

One of the key issues in this election was the criminalisation of politics. Vijaykumar Gavit and Anil Gote won their seats, but Babanrao Pachpute and jail inmates like Sureshdada Jain and Gulabrao Deokar lost. Political parties must learn a lesson from this. We need to figure if Maharashtra politics will ever go beyond elective merit.

This election has also underlined both Modi’s influence as well as his limitations. It has also brought to the fore deficiencies of other parties. Voters have tried to fill the void of credibility by voting for the BJP and Modi. And yet, by not giving a clear majority, they have also told the BJP that they don’t trust them fully. As many as 59 BJP candidates had switched over from another party to the BJP on the eve of the polls. It will be interesting to see how many of them were elected. If they are one-third of the total number of the BJP legislators, then it’s not a good sign.

There is no doubt that there will be a BJP-led government in the state. But people are watching closely how it is going to be ushered in. If BJP indeed takes support from the unprincipled NCP, people are not going to like it. Because this mandate is for the BJP-Sena government. All one can advise the new government is to not ignore this. Or else it won’t be long before we see a repeat of 1999.