Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2014: Why the break up of old political alliances could be good news for young leaders

Political alliances in Maharashtra are on shaky ground right now with indications that the state could have multi-cornered fights and that the voter could have four (or five+ if you want to include the Maharashtra Navnirmaan Sena and other parties) options to choose from.  

It will indeed be interesting if this happens, as the parties that had so far either given up on winning or were absolutely confident of sailing through (read Congress-NCP and Shiv Sena-BJP respectively) have suddenly come alive. The 2014 Lok Sabha results in the state were watershed for the Congress-NCP and the Sena-BJP were seemingly assured of a cakewalk in the ensuing assembly elections. It was only a matter of time and the Congress-NCP government was sure to be unseated.

But with the smell of success, comes the stink of arrogance and that’s exactly what seems to have happened between the Sena-BJP alliance. Both parties are now itching to have the chief minister’s post, which they now believe is almost a given. An independent survey had given the BJP 122 seats in case they decided to fight the elections alone. If this happens, it will not only be the single largest party, but also be the closest to form a government with junior allies like, say the MNS and even independents. But in realpolitik, things are never as simple as two plus two equals four. Math and politics don’t mix.

So while the BJP may have an upper hand in 122 seats independently, the Sena could inflict damage in these seats through its cadre and destroy the Lotus dream of ‘Shat Pratishat BhaJaPa’ i.e. cent percent BJP. We have seen this in the 2009 Lok Sabha and assembly elections where the MNS rattled Sena even though it didn’t win as many seats. As a result, the Sena was relegated to the fourth position in the state and lost seats in its bastion. This also happened in the 1995 assembly elections where Congress rebels contested and not only won a record number of seats independently but also ensured the defeat of authorised party candidates.

Ditto for the Congress-NCP. Both partners are now tired of each other. It had been a marriage of political convenience. Both parties had come together only for power despite Sharad Pawar leaving the Congress over Sonia Gandhi’s leadership. It is said that power is the best glue and this couldn’t have been demonstrated better than this opportunistic duo that stuck together despite all kinds of differences over governance. The only thing that both agreed on was the fig leaf of keeping the 'communal forces' away. The feud over seat allocation always comes to the fore between the Congress and NCP which almost inevitably results in a 10-seat deficit for the Congress-NCP alliance. On most occasions, it’s the Congress that suffers. That’s the reason why more Congressmen want the alliance buried with the NCP.

The churning that should take place in a political system, hasn’t occurred in Maharashtra for the last 15 years at least. Leaders and their families establish themselves and then drop anchor in their respective constituencies. As a result, we see fathers contesting Lok Sabha elections and their sons/daughters standing for the Assembly elections. Their supporters continue to toil, even as the leaders tighten their grip on the constituencies. When NCP broke away from Congress in 1999, a second rank of Congressmen (in both parties) got a chance to prove their mettle. With Raj breaking away from S Sena, a new option was available for the Sainiks to explore their might. If the Sena indeed breaks away from the BJP, activists from both parties will get opportunities in all 288 constituencies. The same holds true for the Congress and NCP too, and they will be forced to look for fresh faces for a serious bid. This will mean opportunities for the young generation that has so far been engaged in working for the established system. It is about time. How long will we allow a handful of families to control state politics?