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What is the status quo ahead of 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army?

The Chinese have painstakingly developed their naval capabilities since the last two decades to have essentially changed the strategic milieu.

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This year began with a 'minor' face-off on January 20 between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army in the Naku La area. Indian Army responded to the PLA’s aggression by inflicting injuries on the intruding enemy.

The Naku La incident reminded of the melee fighting on the intervening night of 15-16 June 2020, which resulted in the deaths of Chinese and Indian soldiers in the Galwan River valley in Eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control.

The PLA broke protocol, and the 1996 agreement with India as its soldiers attacked unarmed Indian Jawans with lethal weapons, including iron rods, batons wrapped in barbed wire and "clubs embedded with nails."

Indian Army’s response to the skirmish had foxed the PLA and resulted in inexplicable losses to them. The perceived communist superpower has been forced to eat the humble pie.

They can neither disengage and go back nor move an inch forward. Therefore, they have reinforced their positions and expanded their infrastructure evidently planned for more than just strengthening their side of the LAC.

For two years, the Line of Actual Control standoff between India and China over Ladakh has been a frozen conflict. There has been disengagement from some areas along the Line LAC following talks but still friction points have continue to be a concern, despite repeated calls from India for China to meet and negotiate a settlement.

The People’s Liberation Army’s continued aggressive posturing on grounds along the line of actual control have now extended to the skies above it. PLAF fighters are violating the no-fly-zone agreement to provoke a response from India.

In response, India has decided to deploy a squadron of its newest and most talked about air-defence import Russian make S-400 on the Ladakh side of the LAC.

India is not the only country confronting Chinese military aggression. As the world reels under Russia-Ukraine war, there are legitimate concerns about China’s intensions to replicate in Taiwan which Russia has done in Ukraine.

Conquering Taiwan is the Chinese Communist Party’s greatest strategic ambition. China’s potential invasion of Taiwan is the likelier scenario than an all-out war with the mighty nuclear armed India. Taiwan, not Ladakh, is most likely next on China’s menu of irredentism.

The Chinese have painstakingly developed their naval capabilities since the last two decades to have essentially changed the strategic milieu and debilitated the military element of cross-Strait deterrence.

On the outset, China appears to lack the amphibious carriage capacity essential to effectively conduct a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. As per west estimates the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will develop the capabilities needed to invade Taiwan by 2025.

However, assessments of China’s cross-strait landing capability have typically focused on PLA navy’s amphibious attack ships and have mostly discounted the capability of CCP controlled “civilian” merchant vessels and Ro-Ro ferries to contribute to an invasion.

China is preparing for asymmetric warfare on all fronts and has been regularly using these civilian Ro-Ro ferries and vehicle carriers to transport armoured vehicles including their main battle tanks.

Ahead of 90th Anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army, Xi Jinping has told Biden bluntly that China owns the international waterway Taiwan Strait: “both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one and the same China.”

China’s fresh claim is a clear warning that Jinping is planning to move on Taiwan at an opportune time.

On the eve of People’s Liberation Army day, the PRC seem to be up to something as their newly built ‘civilian’ Ro-Ro ferries associated with the PLA are moving south towards Taiwan Strait. Are they planning to seize any small island through limited military action?

In all probability, the PLA will first go for Matsu and Kinmen islands and seize these small islands through limited military action, replicating the Russian Invasion of Crimea.

Taipei have troops stationed there, but the numbers are insignificant if it comes to defending a Chinese invasion. Because of their proximity to the Chinese coast, these groups of islands are indefensible.

The Chinese Communist Party under the leadership of president Xi Jinping is pursuing coercive military actions to pressure the democratically elected government of Taiwan to accept a political settlement of their choosing, one in which the Taiwanese may choose to have Hong Kong's nominal autonomy, while mainland China exercises sovereignty over the island.

Numerically, the PLA has a far greater advantage over the Taiwanese armed forces. But, economically, the cost of an attack on Taiwan would be significant.

China is vulnerable to far more drastic EU and US sanctions that would disrupt its world trade outflow. Sustained sanctions against Russia have shown that the Western resolve is not a bluff and can include consequences in Asia and Africa, where China has invested substantially.

The PRC is closely monitoring the Ukraine war and its ramifications to Russia, getting ready to apply these principles against countries whom they consider adversaries. India must redouble its infrastructure building along the LAC which will clearly signal to the PRC that any misadventure to escalate will be met with overwhelming force.

Will China abandon its Sun Tzu masterstroke of winning wars without fighting and get into a kinetic engagement with Taiwan? What will be its ramifications for India? Challenge galore but does it not provide opportunities?

The writer is a veteran of the Indian Navy. The views expressed are his own.

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