PM Modi meets President Zelenskyy: Can India play a role in diffusing Russia-Ukraine tensions?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G-7 summit where both were invited as guests. There are many firsts associated with this meeting. This is the first time both leaders have met since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, and this is the first time when Ukrainian President visited any Asian country. So far, his beat was limited to America and Europe. Even during the 48th G-7 Summit held in Germany, there was no bilateral between the two.

Zelenskyy has been spending his entire time touring the US and Europe to garner support and apparently it is the first time when he realised that he needs to take support of “Swing States” like India too. India has a policy of non-alignment and was not supporting either of the countries involved in the conflict. The Indian stand has always been a peaceful resolution of the dispute by means of bilateral talks.

This is not the first time when talks of India’s mediation between the two countries flared up. Earlier in October 2022 too, PM Modi offered to mediate between Russia and Ukraine for a peaceful resolution of the war, an appeal which was blatantly ignored by comedian-turned-president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, things have changed drastically in the past six months.

While western world is fed up with this war and is now reluctant to help Ukraine the way it was supporting earlier, Ukraine too has lost significant territories in the Azov Sea, Black Sea, Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The effects of this war are significant and almost all of the global economies, especially the European Union, are in shemozzles.

World is desperately looking for the end of this war where western powers are only fueling it. India, on the other hand, was not sitting idle and PM Modi spoke with both Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin a number of times over phone. Let us analyse India’s potential, its pros and cons to end this conflict.

Can India be an effective mediator?

India, being a leader of the non-alignment movement, is respected by the world for its impartiality. Earlier too during the Korean War and Vietnam conflict and during the cold-war scenario, India played a vital role in establishing peace through its initiatives. When we talk of ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict too, then India tried to arrange an informal meeting of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov during “Raisina Dialogue” in Delhi earlier this year.

India is considered respected by both Western powers as well as Russia and has earned a niche by strictly following its policy of non-alignment. Being the fastest growing economy and having a leader of global stature, India is the only country in the world which can talk to West, Russia and Ukraine without any pre-conditions. Hence it is the only hope to end the conflict. Unlike Israel, Indonesia, Turkiye and China who tried their peace efforts in the past and failed, India has a big leverage over both Ukraine and Russia when it comes to ending the hostilities.

During the sidelines of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Uzbekistan in September 2022, PM Modi blatantly told Putin that “Today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this.” This single sentence affirms India’s outlook, its perseverance and will to make an effort to end the conflict.

If we see New Delhi’s position in a nutshell, no country other than India is better placed, capable and globally accepted to act as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. PM Modi is probably the only leader in the world whose voice will be regarded equally by both Putin as well as Zelenskyy and that clarifies India’s position.

India’s dilemma and upcoming challenges

There are several challenges in India’s stature when it comes to act as a mediator where western world is involved. The West has been quite concerned about India’s stand during the ongoing conflict. First point of difference was India’s voting pattern on various resolutions brought at the United Nations against Russia. Many countries including Ukraine itself have criticised it.

The second point is India’s continuous buying of Russian oil despite American sanctions. Even till date, European leaders are quite vocal about it. The third major point was Europe’s reaction to Indian approach as was rightly brought out by Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar during a conference in Bratislava that, “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”

At the same time, another big challenge is to convince Russia to end the conflict who is already in a dominating position having destroyed nearly 60% of Ukrainian Armed Forces, almost entire of their industrial complexes, occupied 80% of their grain producing fields as well as mines and cut off a large chunk of territories including four complete provinces. Russia will not withdraw from these areas unilaterally until it has some concrete assurance about its own security concerns. At this time, when western aid to Ukraine is becoming limited and the common Ukrainian public is fed up with the actions of their own government, Russia is enjoying an upper hand and would not like to lose this advantage over the negotiation table. 

Summing up the same, while India is well capable, accepted and can bring an end to the ongoing bloodshed in Ukraine, there are challenges too. If India succeeds in doing it, it will be another feather in its cap to be a globally acclaimed leader and if it fails, the onus will lie on it too. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has invited PM Modi to Kyiv, will there actually be peace, is going to be a million dollar question for the future.