ANALYSIS
US allies, including Saudi Arabia andthe UAE, argued that Iran could retaliate by targeting them.
US President Donald Trump has not only adopted a stance similar to that of Ayatollah Khamenei, but he has also postponed his plan to attack Iran, Khamenei's country, for the time being. The whole world is surprised by Trump's decision. It was Trump who, just a few weeks ago, had the Venezuelan president kidnapped. Why did the same Trump back down from the decision to attack? Today, we will analyse this decision of Trump's. To understand this analysis, you should first listen very carefully to Trump's statement on Iran.
Just two days ago, Trump posted a message on social media. In this post, addressing the Iranian protesters, Trump wrote, "Keep going, help is on the way." Following this post, Trump also stated that the US would attack if Iran killed or executed any of the protesters. You should carefully observe and understand the impact of Trump's statement on Iran.
Immediately after Trump's statement, the Khamenei government postponed the execution of protester Irfan Sultani. Following Sultani's case, 800 other protesters in Iran also received pardons from the Supreme Leader. Representatives of the Khamenei government also assured Trump that excessive force would not be used against the protesters.
On the surface, it appears that Iran did not offend Trump's ego, which is why the US postponed its decision to attack Iran. Trump's leniency towards Iran wasn't simply about granting amnesty to the protesters. Now, we will tell you the story behind the scenes that will reveal whether Trump showed mercy or was weaving a new web of deception. To decode Trump's plan, you need to go back in time a little.
On January 13, America's allies in the Middle East—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar—appealed to Trump not to attack. The Arab countries argued that Iran could retaliate by targeting them. On January 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump held talks. Netanyahu also suggested that the attack on Iran should be postponed for some time. Israel argued that its air defence system had not yet reached a level where it could completely prevent Iranian attacks.
Trump merely used the assurance of halting the execution as a pretext to call off the attack. The real reason is Trump's fear of Iran's missile power, which could inflict significant damage on US allies. This is why Trump chose not to pursue a military option.
According to international strategic assessments, Iran is manufacturing approximately 50 missiles every month. Currently, Iran possesses more than 3,000 ballistic missiles. Some of these missiles are hypersonic. Most of Iran's missiles have a range of 1,500 to 2,000 kms.
To retaliate, Iran would target US allies in the Middle East. Even a country like Israel doesn't have the capacity to intercept thousands of ballistic missiles. These are the factors that led Trump to postpone the decision to attack Iran for the time being.