DNA Special: Analysing the mood of voters in Uttarakhand

Zee News has conducted the largest opinion poll in India's history so far, of more than 12 lakh people in 690 assembly seats in five states going to polls. We start with who is winning in Uttarakhand this time. The hint is that it is not very good news for Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami. But first, here are some important things about this opinion poll.

This opinion poll has been conducted by Zee News with DesignBoxed, a political campaign management company with a long experience of opinion polls. More than 12 lakh people have been consulted in 690 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur and Goa in this opinion poll. This is the largest opinion poll in history so far in terms of sample size.

In Uttarakhand, we used a sample size of 40,000 from a total of 60 lakh voters. This means, one in every 150 people has responded.

The highest number of people (41 percent) went with Harish Rawat for the CM of Uttarakhand thrice between 2014 and 2017. However, there is also a faction against him in the Congress organisation over ticket sharing and leadership. Despite this, he emerged as the primary chief minister choice in opinion polls.

On the other hand, incumbent CM Dhami is second with favourability among 27 percent people. It has been just six months since Pushkar Singh Dhami became the CM. But while he is the head of the BJP government, he is far behind Rawat in terms of popularity. BJP’s Anil Baluni is third with 15 percent share in people's choice. The fourth place goes to Aam Aadmi Party’s Col. Ajay Kothiyal with 9 percent share.

In the 2017 elections, the BJP got an absolute majority in Uttarakhand. But despite that, the party could not form a stable government. In five years between 2017 and 2022, the BJP changed the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand a total of three times. Trivendra Singh Rawat was first made CM. Then Tirath Singh Rawat replaced him. But three months later, he was also removed and Pushkar Singh Dhami took over the responsibility. It seems that the BJP has suffered little by changing the CM again and again.

What issues people will cast their votes this time in Uttarakhand?

According to opinion polls, the biggest issue in the elections this time will be unemployment with 23 percent share among respondents. Uttarakhand ranks 10th in the list of 28 States and 8 Union Territories in terms of unemployment. Moreover, a survey says that every third youth in Uttarakhand is unemployed. So, no party can ignore this issue.

Electricity, water and roads will be a big issue for 21 percent of the people while land law will be a big issue for 14 percent. When Trivendra Singh Rawat was CM in 2018, he amended the state's land law, making it easier for traders in other states to buy land and do business in Uttarakhand. Opinion poll suggests that some people are angry about this and can vote on the basis of this issue.

13 percent say the election will be based on migration. In Uttarakhand, 5 lakh people have migrated to other states in search of work in the last 10 years. Moreover, 4,000 villages are currently in ruins due to migration as no one is left to live there. Therefore, this issue will also have a huge impact in this election. 10 percent believe that health sector will also be a big and effective issue.

Which party will benefit the caste and religion equation in Uttarakhand this time?

The largest vote bank in Uttarakhand is considered to be the Brahmin vote. According to opinion polls, the Congress could get 43 percent of the Brahmin votes while 57 percent can give their precious votes to BJP.

Moreover, the Thakur community will also be inclined towards the BJP. 60 percent voters of Thakur community can vote for BJP while the Congress may get the support of 40 percent. Similarly, 67 percent OBC voters can support BJP while Congress may get 33 percent OBC votes. In Uttarakhand, OBC voters are considered decisive. OBC voters contributed immensely to the BJP's victory in 2017.

However, when it comes to Muslim voters, the Congress may get 84 percent, while the BJP is projected to get 16 percent. According to opinion polls, Muslim voters are very effective in 6 to 7 seats and it can directly benefit the Congress.

Besides, Congress may get the highest number of votes at 62 percent from Dalit community while BJP is projected to get 38 percent.

Uttarakhand is divided into two regions - Garhwal and Kumaon. In Garhwal region with 41 seats in 7 districts, including famous cities like Dehradun and Haridwar, BJP had the highest vote share in 2017 at 46.41 percent while Congress had 31.62 percent and others had 21.97 percent of the vote.

But according to our opinion polls, this picture may change now. The BJP could lose about 3.5 percent vote share in the region. In Garhwal, voter share of BJP in 41 seats may come down from 46.5 percent to 43 percent. The Congress' vote share may increase by about 7 percent from 2017 with a projected 38 percent votes in Garhwal.

Aam Aadmi Party is also likely to harm BJP and Congress in several seats in Garhwal. AAP is seen getting 14 percent votes in the opinion polls. This figure is big because the AAP was not in the fight here last time.

In terms of the math of seats, BJP had won 34 seats out of 41 seats in Garhwal in 2017 while the Congress had won 6 seats and others had 1 seat. But according to Zee News opinion polls, BJP may get 22 to 24 seats this time. The Congress is getting 15-17 seats, which means the Congress seems to be directly gaining big. Aam Aadmi Party's share may go from zero to 1 seat.

In Kumaon region with a total of 6 districts, combining Nainital and Almora, there are a total of 29 seats. BJP had the highest vote share here in 2017 with 46.65 percent votes while Congress got 31.08 percent votes and others got 17.27 percent. The story may change and the vote share of the BJP may come down by 8 percent to 38 percent as compared to 2017. The Congress may get 42 percent vote share. AAP may get 10 percent votes in Kumaon.

There are reports that the present BJP government has been accused of ignoring the Kumaon region which seems to be hurting the BJP here. The overall story is that BJP is getting 8.65 percent less vote share than in 2017. Congress is getting 10.92 percent more vote share. In 2017, BJP had the highest number of 23 seats in Kumaon while Congress had won five seats. According to opinion polls, BJP may get 9 to 11 seats while Congress is getting 18 to 20 seats.

Who is winning this time in Uttarakhand?

Out of 70 seats in Uttarakhand in 2017, BJP got 57 while the Congress got 11 seats and independent candidates had won two seats. But according to opinion polls, BJP may get 31 to 35 seats while the Congress may get 33 to 37 seats. Aam Aadmi Party may go from zero to 2 seats while the other's share can go from zero to one seat.

BJP’s vote share in Uttarakhand is also likely to fall by 7 percent from 46.51 percent in 2017 to 39 percent. The Congress vote share may go up by 7 percent from 33.49 percent to 40 percent. While others got 20 percent votes in 2017, the share may come down to 9 percent. Debutant AAP is projected to make a big leap of 12 percent vote share in Uttarakhand.