Chirag Paswan will contest alone in the Bihar assembly election 2020 though LJP will not field candidates against BJP. LJP will compete only against JDU candidates. In the case of a hung assembly, LJP extends its support to BJP to stop Nitish Kumar again becoming Bihar CM.
Everything is happening as expected. Chirag Paswan, who started with the attack on Nitish Kumar, culminated last Sunday after LJP declared that it would give candidates only against JD(U) in the upcoming Bihar Assembly Election 2020.
The BJP did not react to this whole issue and stamped it out, which means a silent agreement for 'another NDA' in the Bihar electoral arena. By the way, the intention was evident on Saturday with the poster of 'Modi Tujhse Bair Nahi, Nitish Teri Khair Nahi.' Meaning a plot of a story is ready, whose climax can be understood right now.
LJP had won 2 seats last time but was second on 36 and third on two.
Equations might look pretty simple with the LJP is out of the NDA, and the BJP-JDU has decided to fight half-and-half. But not as straightforward as it appears.
During the last election in 2015, BJP fought on 157 seats, JDU 101, and LJP 42 seats. BJP won 53 seats. There were 104 seats where it was number two. Now, it does not have more than 121 or 122 seats. In the 50-50 formula with JDU, BJP will not contest on half of the Bihar assembly seats. It is these seats that matter.
Experts say that LJP will be fighting on such seats, and it will get the 'support' of the BJP as an invisible partner. Of the 42 seats on which LJP had fought last time, it won just two seats but was the runner on 36 assembly constituencies.
The 2015 election result, maths indicates that BJP wins and number two position seats combine to 155, while LJP stands at 38. Combining which the tally goes to 193. This combined number is an excellent strike rate in a 243 member assembly constituency. With BJP's support, LJP can improve its count from the last election and play as a 'Vote Katwa' where JDU is contesting. It may result in the weakening of JDU's bargaining power after the Bihar election results. In such a scenario, BJP will have the upper hand in Bihar government formation and playing the game on its terms.
LJP may not win more seats, but it may play spoiler for JDU
Even if LJP could not win more seats, it will only spoil Nitish Kumar's plans so much that his recovery will not be easy. It is clear, LJP win or loses, and it will play a spoilsport for Nitish's game. In this case, too BJP will be a clear winner.
In the February 2005 election, too, LJP took great advantage of people's resentment towards the Lalu Yadav government. Ramvilas Paswan was an RJD's ally before that elections. There was a lot of resentment against Lalu Prasad Yadav's 15-year rule.
Now 15 years of Nitish rule are being completed. This time LJP would like to leave no stone unturned in cashing anti-incumbency. Indeed, a voter who is naturally angry with Nitish will also be the one who, upon seeing Tejashwi, will remember the era of the Lalu Yadav government. Opposition describes RJD's Lalu Prasad Yadav rule as 'anti-upper caste' and 'symbol of anarchy.' If a voter does not want to adopt RJD or Nitish, he will see a new option in LJP. Experts believe that Nitish has annoyed everyone.
How BJP gains from LJP leaving NDA
Statistics show that BJP gets more benefits from the JDU-BJP alliance. Two scenarios may emerge if the BJP can garner more from the seat-sharing formula. Though BJP advantage also depends upon how much can Chirag damage JDU. First, if the BJP comes out as a more massive legislative party and JDU supports it on 'moral' compulsion, it will want to claim the chief minister's chair by becoming the 'big brother.' Secondly, if LJP somehow gets 30 or above seats, it will weaken Nitish Kumar. Weaker Nitish means stronger BJP in Bihar.
If a hung assembly situation arises, both BJP and LJP can play kingmaker.
BJP may get LJP's support for the JDU government on changing the CM face and getting anyone else in place of Nitish Kumar. In this scenario, too, BJP will be the clear winner.
There may be another scenario after election results where BJP and LJP get enough numbers to form the government without Nitish Kumar's support. In Bihar's coalition politics, anything is possible, as Nitish had proved many times by changing partners since 2005.
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 "How much damage will Chirag Paswan cause to Nitish Kumar")
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