At one level, the intervention in Yemen by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Qatar, Oman and Pakistan to push back the northern rebels led by the Shi’ite Houthis is a fight between the old sectarian rivals, Sunnis and Shias as it is a tussle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran. The two countries — Iran and Saudi Arabia — are trying to attain the status of regional superpower in the Gulf region. Iran — reportedly — is supplying arms to the Houthi rebels. The Yemeni case is a little more complicated than a sectarian clash, though it is certainly also that at one level. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are now on the same side, wanting to restore the government Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. But these two countries were on opposing sides in Yemen’s 1962 political crisis. The Saudis had then backed the royalists and Egyptians the republicans. 

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There is also the difference in political history between South Yemen, which was a British Protectorate between the two World Wars, and North Yemen which had remained independent. These two parts united to become a single country in 1990 under Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saleh had to leave the country following the Arab Spring protests in Yemen in 2011. That same year, one of the protest leaders, Tawakkol Karman, a young human rights activist and a woman, won the Nobel Prize for Peace. The Houthi had joined hands with the protesters. The political negotiations in the last few years over sharing of power between the southern and northern parts of the country turned out to be unsuccessful despite demarcating Yemen into six federating units.

The situation in Yemen is particularly complicated due to the conflicting agendas of the country’s many players. The United States is interested in containing and defeating the Houthis because they are seen as pawns of Iran. Interestingly, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), has also pitched itself against the Houthis, because the Sunni ISIS wants to fight the good battle against the Shi’ite Houthis. Pakistan is in a dilemma because it considers itself to be close to both Iran and Saudi Arabia, though Pakistan and Saudi Arabia share formal as well as close military ties. Pakistan also has a significant minority of Shias, who are targets of violent attacks by the militant Sunni groups in the country. Pakistan has acceded to the Saudi request to join the coalition to intervene in Yemen. 

Experts are asking whether outside military intervention will restore the apparent Sunni supremacy in Yemen; or whether it will escalate the war, with Iran providing the crucial arms supply and financial aid to the Houthis.

Though not clear in its objectives, the West may want the conflict to be notched up in Yemen. Till a few years ago, the US had been chasing the al Qaeda elements in this region. Simultaneously, the West also wants to check the rise of Houthis because of their Iran connection. But the likely outcome is that the two sides will lay down their arms sooner rather than later — and hammer out an agreement. The Arab countries as well as people in Yemen do not believe in fighting inconclusive wars. Yemen has gone through these cycles of war-and-peace in the last 50 years.  The contest for political power between Sunnis and Shias will continue — and only intermittently   flare up into a full-scale war. Unfortunately, it is the Yemenis who will pay the price for this internecine strife in their country.