Though elections to the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly are just a few months away, the four leading political parties in the state continue to labour under the weight of their own contradictions. In 2012, it was not until the last month of the election campaign that the Samajwadi Party (SP) could get its act together even as the then ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) government went into the elections from a position of strength, having improved the law and order situation. So the possibility of one of UP’s big four parties —  the SP, BSP, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress — pulling ahead of the pack cannot be ruled out just yet. Going by past record, the UP electorate has not favoured an incumbent since 1985 and this would stack the odds against Akhilesh Yadav. But with political parties perfecting their social engineering strategies and the uninhibited play of identity politics it has become impossible to rule off incumbents. The success of the Mahagatbandan in Bihar where Nitish Kumar was able to return to power is a case in point.

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To his credit, chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has focussed on developmental schemes and inviting investments and is clearly the most bankable face in the SP today. However, the power struggle within the Yadav clan and his uncle Shivpal’s hold over the SP cadre will cast its shadow on the government’s attempt to project its achievements. Law and order continues to be the Achilles heel for the SP with gruesome instances of violence against women and communal violence. The Muslim-Yadav social alliance crafted painstakingly by Mulayam Singh Yadav is under threat with the BSP and the Congress making a determined push to court Muslim voters. The non-Yadav OBC groups are also unhappy with the SP, just as the non-Jatav Dalit groups grimaced at the dominance enjoyed by the Jatavs during Mayawati’s rule. 

BSP supremo Mayawati appears to have the backing of her Dalit community this time but her attempts to build a larger social coalition has not gained ground. In 2012 and 2014, the Dalit-Brahmin alliance she had cobbled together unravelled. More worryingly for Mayawati, non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit leaders in the BSP fold are migrating to the BJP, which indicates a conscious effort by the BJP to broaden its support base. Despite boasting of 73 MPs from the state and having success in courting leaders from other parties, the BJP has taken its own time to finalise its political strategy. The inability to announce a chief ministerial candidate is hurting the BJP. It remains to be seen if Prime Minister Narendra Modi will pitchfork himself into the UP campaign as he did in Bihar and Delhi. 

For a change, it is the Congress that has put its best foot forward. Having roped in Prashant Kishor as poll strategist and announced Sheila Dikshit as the party’s CM candidate, the Congress is keenly eyeing the Brahmin and Muslim voters. There are decent crowds at Rahul Gandhi’s rallies despite the repetitive pro-farmer quotes and anti-Modi jibes, though the cots at his khat sabhas seem to be one of the primary attractions. The Congress knows that its political revival has to begin from India’s most populous state if it is to be taken seriously again but with Rahul’s shoot-and-scoot approach, voters may not take him or the Congress seriously. The key is to tap into the aspirations of UP’s young voters who make up nearly one-third of the electorate but political parties seem more keen on projecting the right leaders and social alliances. Akhilesh Yadav in 2012 and Narendra Modi in 2014 gave hope to young voters of a transformational change. But with political parties too busy in setting their house in order, the message has become a casualty.