The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change has sent down its gravest warning yet: reduce fossil fuel emissions to zero by 2100 or be prepared for warming beyond 2ºCelsius and accompanying “severe, widespread and irreversible” changes to natural and human systems on earth. The IPCC’s Synthesis Report distilling the findings of three working groups and two previous IPCC reports involved nearly 800 scientists; to continue deriding their scientific rigour as alarmism is self-defeating. The report tells us that the sooner we act, the economic and human development costs could be less and the adverse impact more manageable in the long-term. To critical polluters like the US, China and India which have opposed legal commitments to reduce CO2 emissions, the report conclusively tells that worries about the short-term implications on economic growth are misplaced. The report concludes that mitigation measures will result only in a negligible (0.04-0.14 percentage point) annualised decline in consumption while the cost of delaying significant emission cuts to 2030 raises the economic costs by 50 per cent.

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Reducing fossil fuel emissions to zero or cutting emissions to 41-72 per cent below today’s levels is imperative. CO2  emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes contribute 78 per cent of the total greenhouse gas(GHG). More worryingly, the 2000-2010 decade did not see this percentage or total emissions reduce. Even as the contribution of population growth to GHG emission has remained static, the share of economic growth in emissions has increased. The intensifying dependence on coal for power generation is reversing the trend towards decarbonisation. It is evident that the cuts meditated by the Kyoto Protocol, the annual UN Framework on Convention on Climate Change conferences, and voluntary cuts by countries are not working well. To achieve phase-out of fossil fuels by 2100, the IPCC has suggested increasing the share of low carbon electricity supply — comprising renewable energy, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) — from 30 per cent currently to more than 80 per cent by 2050. But, countries like India and China, or the US will struggle with these targets. China accounts for nearly half the world’s coal consumption, while India’s coal consumption is rising. Even the US depends on fossil fuels for 70 per cent of its energy needs. The IPCC’s faith in CCS, involving storing CO2 from burning coal in underground reservoirs, is heartening but the technology is at an incipient stage.

While we ignore climate change at our peril, scant attention is being paid to immediate changes. Cities like Delhi are battling poor air quality and respiratory diseases for several years. The impact of coal mining and thermal plants has ravaged rural areas like Sonbhadra district in UP with Outlook magazine reporting hundreds of cases of congenital and physical disorders and neurological problems. India’s high growth trajectory has triggered a ravenous appetite for coal. This, in turn, has weakened environmental regulations and surrendered forests to be carved up for coal mining. India’s quest for nuclear energy has been undermined by pointless dithering after courageously enacting a stiff liability regime for nuclear operators. In 2010, India set a target to generate 20,000MW of solar energy by 2022, but grid capacity has currently reached only 2,700MW. Even while worrying about climate change, India’s Prime Minister is wooing foreign manufacturers with a “Come, Make in India” pitch. This is the socio-political context in which the IPCC’s findings and prescriptions will have to be viewed. Countries beset by the pressing imperative to continually raise standards of living are postponing reality to tomorrow, putting everyone at risk.