The assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir next month may spring surprises that will stump political pundits. This is the fourth election after insurgency in the early 1990s interrupted polls in the state. The first three were held in 1996, 2002 and 2008 and each one of them brought a change of regime. The 1996 polls, which were considered orchestrated, brought Farooq Abdullah into office. But the next time round, in a close contest, it was the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed in alliance with Congress that made it to the office. In 2008, the people chose National Conference, this time led by Omar Abdullah, in alliance with the Congress. 

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The 2002 alliance arrangement was politically significant because Congress president Sonia Gandhi acceded to PDP president Mehbooba Mufti to let her father be the Chief Minister for the first three years despite her party not getting more seats than the Congress. Ghulam Nabi Azad of the Congress party served as Chief Minister for the last three years of the six-year term. Azad was also the first CM who did not belong to the Kashmir Valley. With every election, the people are flexing their democratic muscle, looking for options and opting for change. 

It should not come as a surprise then that ordinary people in the Valley, keen to exercise their franchise, are clearly scanning the political choices before them. One of the most critical issues before the electorate for example is the continuance of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). The voters seem to be ready to explore fresh political alternatives, if only to remove AFSPA. The political barometer in the Valley is important more than in the other two regions of the state, Jammu and Ladakh, because Pakistan, jihadi elements and the separatists are all focused here.  

It is in this context that the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) bid to stake its electoral claims in the Valley, and the willingness of the Sajjad Lone of People’s Conference, one of the marginal groups compared to NC and PDP, to strike an alliance with the BJP becomes intelligible. It does not matter whether the BJP will make any gains in the Valley but people have not closed their minds to it, and they are now willing to accept it as one of the important election players. The BJP is stepping into the space that a battered Congress has vacated, and they are willing to take the usual political risks that participation in an election involves. For many years, the BJP has confined itself to Jammu which has a relatively larger Hindu electorate. It is good for Jammu and Kashmir if the marginal groups and the major parties face each other in the electoral arena on an equal footing. This is unlikely to silence the minuscule separatist groups but it would strengthen democratic processes in the state. People at large are now convinced that it is their right to demand from the elected parties that those in office serve the needs of the state, provide social and physical infrastructure in terms of schools, colleges, hospitals, roads and habitations. They are also very critical of corrupt leaders. More importantly, there is a general sentiment among the people in favour of the peace dividend that democratic politics brings. Elections are one of the most important parts of this process.