dna edit: The Nitish factor

In the growing movement for a third front — an alternative to the Congress and the BJP — JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar is playing a crucial role. The Bihar chief minister appears keen on strengthening ties with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee who too is interested in such a political alternative. Kumar, a long-time ally of the NDA, wants to distance himself from the BJP and project a secular image before the 2014 elections for several reasons — the rise of Modi being the first among them.

The JD(U) leader is also apprehensive of giving any quarter to his traditional adversary Lalu Prasad Yadav whose party the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) defeated the JD(U) candidate in the recent Maharajganj bypoll. Kumar, surely, doesn’t want to suffer like Banerjee who had to pay a heavy political price for being part of the NDA. In the 2004 general elections, her party the Trinamool Congress, was virtually wiped out, after alienating the significant minorities population in Bengal for her proximity with the BJP.

However, it’s important to take a closer look at the reasons suggested by Kumar for snapping ties with the saffron party. Ostensibly, they stem from the secular ideology he professes to believe in. His critics and political adversaries however suggest otherwise.

For instance, Kumar chose to stay with the NDA government even after the 2002 Gujarat pogrom. Then a railway minister in the NDA government, Kumar continued to be an important ally of the BJP, even as Ram Vilas Paswan quit the alliance and the cabinet in protest.

In Kumar’s defence it could be cynically argued that his not quitting the alliance had to do with his primary mission of defeating Lalu Prasad and firming up his base in Bihar. For that he needed a poll tie-up with the BJP.   Kumar has been Bihar’s chief minister since 2005, yet he hadn’t shown any inclination to pull out of the NDA till recently.

However, can Kumar pull off a spectacular feat all by himself? If the recent bypoll is any indication, then parting ways with the BJP can in turn hurt his political calculations . He may lose potential voters to both the BJP and the RJD. Would his severance of ties with the BJP be a successful poll gamble in retaining the minority votebank? After a few years of political oblivion, the RJD chief is desperately trying to stage a comeback. It is important to remember that Lalu has always maintained a secular image in national and state politics. Kumar’s attempt to distance himself from the BJP at this point can be viewed as a brazen tactic to woo the minorities, who have seen in Lalu, a traditional ally.