DNA Edit: Single journey

It was a long time coming, and once the cat was out of the bag, the electoral landscape of Maharashtra was hardly taken by surprise. Cracks in the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance have been surfacing repeatedly over the last few years, so much so that MLA Nitesh Rane even shot off a formal request to the Guinness World Records, demanding that Shiv Sena’s numerous attempts at withdrawing its support from the BJP government be recognised as a unique record.

The letter went viral, drawing a hearty chuckle from the bystanders, while the battle of wills continued unabated between the two sides. With Uddhav Thackeray deciding to dump the BJP for the 2019 polls, a 29-year-old alliance, which saw both the parties battling the rough and tumble of Maharashtra politics, has come to an end.

Whatever may be Uddhav’s calculation, the electoral clout of the party has seen a dramatic slide vis-a-vis the BJP. It was the 2014 Lok Sabha elections that decisively conveyed to Shiv Sena that it was facing inclement political headwinds. Riding on Modi wave, the BJP stormed the Lok Sabha winning 23 seats from Maharashtra, over its 2009 tally of nine seats.

A threatened Shiv Sena started a round of negotiations with the BJP, trying to reach a mutual understanding on the number of seats both parties could contest. The negotiations went south as a powerful BJP — quite optimistic about its chances — refused to toe the Shiv Sena line. Nothing but frustration came of the negotiations and the Shiv Sena, while sticking with the BJP as an ally at the Centre, went head-to-head against it in the state elections of October 2014.

Shiv Sena, the party that has for decades prided itself on representing the ‘Marathi Manoos,’ contested 282 seats against the BJP’s 260 seats and managed to win only 63 seats, while the BJP raced miles ahead with 122 seats.

Even in February 2016, in the civic body polls, the BJP gave Shiv Sena a run for its money and came two short of Shiv Sena’s tally of 84 seats. Post the break-up, it is safe to bet that the BJP will not be shaking hands with the NCP as that would imply an irreconcilable loss of credibility.

Prior to 2014, the BJP had opened a front against NCP leader Ajit Pawar, skewering him for his role in the irrigation scam in the state. Once the BJP came to power, it also launched a probe against him. Naturally, an alliance between the NCP and the BJP can take place if the investigation is sidelined, and at the cost of sending a crystal-clear message that the BJP is not as committed to its promise of a clean, corruption-free governance.

On the other hand, the Shiv Sena believes that it has a fighting chance to regain lost ground in the 2019 polls. In any case, it has been quite vocal against the party and its politics. It has been attacking the BJP on demonetisation, inflation, the disturbingly rising trend of farmer suicides.

Even when the BJP chose Ram Nath Kovind as its presidential candidate, the Sena labelled it as “vote-bank politics”. Listen carefully and one can hear the BJP saying: Good riddance.