DNA Edit: Numbers Game - Opposition parties are split on their backing of Rahul Gandhi

Much as it may appear like a foregone conclusion, the contours of a Rahul Gandhi-led combined opposition is far from guaranteed.

Days after DMK supremo Stalin, unequivocally and unilaterally, proposed the Congress President’s name as prime ministerial candidate for 2019 at a rally in Chennai, the reactions to his grandiose announcement have probably not been what the Congress had hoped for.

The strongest disapproval of any such pre-electoral alignment came from Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, perceived by some to be a formidable contender to form the next government after the Lok Sabha election, in the eventuality of a regional party representative staking claim to the top job.

The Kolkata-based Trinamool said that any announcement of a prime ministerial candidate at this stage would be premature. The Trinamool, it said, believes such announcements send out a wrong message. Mamata is not the only one. Two strong regional parties from UP, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), that had assured their support to the Gandhi family scion after the party’s recent win in the three Hindi belt states, did not send their representatives to the swearing-in of Congress governments in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Symbolically, most leaders of the ‘mahagathbandhan’ travelled together by air and a much-publicised bus ride, with Rahul in a suitably vantage position. The TDP, for long an anti-Congress party now pushed into the anti-BJP camp, has declined to offer a chest-thumping comment on the lines of the DMK.

The party’s national spokesperson told reporters that while DMK’s enthusiasm in backing Rahul was understandable as it was part of the Congress-led UPA, the same could not be said of the TDP, whose current passion included building up a credible anti-BJP front without concentrating too much on who would lead such a front.

Similar sentiments have been expressed by the Left Front, which may not have the numbers, but which can act as a glue and guide to rope in other parties. Little wonder that Congress strategists, sensing that it would be futile to ruffle feathers so early, have backtracked.

Informally, party spokespersons have told reporters that a decision on who should lead the anti-BJP coalition lies in the womb of the future, that is after the Lok Sabha elections. Such a tactic is also wedded to strategic realities.

Many regional parties count Congress as among their main rivals on their respective home turfs. For instance, in UP, while traditionally the SP has backed the Congress when it comes to the Centre, the same generosity is not evident when it comes to tying up with the Congress at the state level.

Likewise with Mayawati and Mamata who will both have to contend with the Congress and the BJP in their areas of influence. Such lack of cohesion among the top opposition leaders would be music to BJP’s ears. But clearly, democracy is a game of numbers and until the cards are out, no one knows who holds the aces.