ANALYSIS
The disarray in national parties comes as a boost to third front parties. The idea of a non-Congress, non-BJP third electoral alternative, has always held charm for large numbers of people in India — even when these governments, made up of disparate elements, have failed to endure and provide stability in the long run.
Amid the present political volatility, particularly the convulsions in the BJP, once considered most disciplined of all political parties, the idea of a third alternative seems to gain renewed traction. Many will agree that the Congress and the BJP, the two major national parties in India are in a state of crisis today, keeping consonance with its deeply fragmented polity.
The Congress may still view the on-going feud between the two BJP stalwarts with some satisfaction, hoping to extract electoral capital from it. No doubt, the Modi-Advani war has exposed serious faultlines within the BJP , denting the party’s image and credibility. The Congress may be desperately hoping to cash in on the BJP’s internal turmoil, but the Congress too, is on a sticky wicket. In the last nine years, people’s disenchantment with the grand old party has only grown. A series of scams — Commonwealth Games, 2G to the recent coal allocation — has further contributed to that disillusionment. The dismal state of the economy also weighs against it.
However, corruption has been the Congress’s biggest bane, for which it has only its tainted ministers and a weak government shielding them, to blame.
The BJP can’t flaunt a clean image either. Even though Narendra Modi is perceived to have a zero-tolerance approach to corruption, his party leaders are not known for their squeaky clean image. The BJP recently lost the Karnataka assembly polls to the Congress primarily due to rampant corruption underlining its five-year rule in the state.
The turmoil within the BJP and the uninspiring performance of the Congress may work as an incentive for the formation of a third front, comprising parties reluctant to side with either the BJP and the Congress. The chief minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee and her counterpart in Odisha, Naveen Patnaik, have recently articulated their desire to maintain equidistance from both the national parties.
Disgruntled UPA allies like the DMK are none too happy with the Congress following the incarceration of two of their senior leaders — A Raja and Kanimozhi — on corruption charges. For the BJP too, a third front could spell bad news. It’s key ally, Nitish Kumar of the JD (U), has refused to co-exist with Modi in the NDA. For Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, a third front could be a way of maximising their leverage in national politics.
Most of these regional parties were partners of the United Front government formed after the 1996 elections.
So are we looking at the emergence of another 1996 like situation? Though the drastically reduced strength of Left parties and the absence of Harkishen Singh Surjeet, an artful player in back room coalition politics, could make the complex job of getting a third-front together difficult, the objective political situation seems to be veering towards such a possibility.