ANALYSIS
On Tuesday, the Congress victory in the Hindi heartland of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, and the wins registered by regional parties in Telangana and Mizoram, confirm that Indian politics is returning true to form.
One day is a long time in politics. It certainly is enough to change optics, even if temporarily. The results of the assembly elections have given hope to anti-BJP political forces that have been at the receiving end of the seemingly unstoppable saffron juggernaut.
On Tuesday, the Congress victory in the Hindi heartland of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, and the wins registered by regional parties in Telangana and Mizoram, confirm that Indian politics is returning true to form. The two basic poles of polity, the BJP and the Congress, are in place with a cackle of regional parties constituting the flanks on both sides.
The Congress, at the margins since its abysmal performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha, has received a big shot in the arm. It has won three important states and Rahul Gandhi has received assurances of support from its potential allies in the crucial days ahead.
This is, in fact, a tacit admission by allies, some of whom were doubting Thomases about the ability of the Congress scion to lead — that the young man has arrived as a potential claimant to India’s throne. After nearly a decade of dismal performances, this is the first real sign of his success and coming of age, and the smiles on Congress faces say it all.
What that means is that the era of coalition politics may be back with a vengeance. No matter how much the Congress picks up, its current base is so low at 43 Lok Sabha seats that it would need allies to make a government in 2019, if it does. There is also hope for a powerful regional satrap like Mamata Banerjee, depending upon the numbers she gets in comparison to the Congress.
In other words, just about anyone on the political chessboard can hope to become Prime Minister, dictated by the numbers he or she gets. Certainly, the electorate has its way of giving out signals and presuming that to be the case, some signals would, undoubtedly, have been received.
It is important to remember, however, that for all of Congress’ triumphs this week, it would be a tad premature to suggest that the party is set to be back in the saddle. For one, Rajasthan never returns a ruling party, at least not since the days of one-party Congress regimes, simply because there was no alternative at that time.
As for three-term BJP CMs in MP and Chhattisgarh, history was against them: To get a fourth term for a state government in modern India of anti-incumbency and media pressures, is indeed a tall order (Gujarat and Odisha are exceptions).
It would also not be out of place to mention that while elections are undoubtedly an indication of public mood, there has to be some difference in treatment of a Lok Sabha constituency from an assembly seat. Quite simply, while the former selects a Prime Minister, the latter is a vote cast to pick up a Chief Minister. The issues, personalities and the scale are vastly different. Nonetheless, assembly election results are a good sign that Indian democracy is thriving.
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