DNA Edit: India-Iran dynamics

Indian diplomacy, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has finally come of age. New Delhi’s outreach initiatives in West Asia — involving Iran and Israel who are at loggerheads with each other, to put it mildly — have shown uncharacteristic maturity. A balancing act on the slippery terrain of international politics requires self-confidence and long-term vision that India had failed to demonstrate all these years.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s trip last week came less than a month after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s historic visit to India to normalise Indo-Israel ties. Iran is now a crucial ally in India’s strategic and commercial interests in central Asia as well as in the latter’s fight against terrorism. Despite the socio-political and sectarian upheavals in West Asia and shifting loyalties of countries in the region, India’s ties with Iran have been warm barring an earlier spell of US-imposed sanctions on Tehran. The setting up of Chabahar port and planned investments of $500 million to expand the scope of bilateral cooperation, aided by infrastructure creation for the transport of Indian goods, is a milestone in India-Tehran relations.

As India emerges as the global hotspot for international investments, its growing energy needs should be met significantly by the Middle East to India Deepwater Pipeline. Rouhani’s visit has created a win-win situation for both countries since Iran too stands to benefit from India’s commercial engagements in the country. Beset with problems arising from US’s economic embargo that have led to high inflation and large-scale unemployment, Iran desperately needs foreign investments to shore up its economy.

However, a lot depends on how the US conducts its affairs vis-à-vis Iran since President Donald Trump seems to be following in the footsteps of his predecessor Barack Obama in taking a tough stand on Tehran’s role in the West Asia crisis. The US is contemplating taking forceful action to halt Iran’s development of “an increasingly powerful network of proxy armies in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq”. This will have a direct bearing on India-Iran ties. Concurrently, the United Nations Security Council is being urged by Britain, America and France to condemn Iran for failing to stop its ballistic missiles from falling into the hands of Yemen’s Houthi group and commit to take action over the sanctions violations. These developments make Iran’s position precarious. Rouhani’s aggressive posturing against Western powers is driving the wedge of animosity even deeper.

Moreover, Rouhani also has to grapple with domestic unrest. Powerful women’s voices have emerged from a wave of popular protests and strikes that has been spreading throughout the country in opposition to the Islamic Republic. Understandably, PM Modi will factor in these developments while charting out the roadmap of bilateral ties. Still, one thing is certain: Rouhani’s visit has paved the way for a deeper engagement with India.