With Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Uttar Pradesh Chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi, and former UP chief minister Mayawati congregating on Varanasi over the weekend, the country’s attention is rivetted on the city which goes to polls on March 8. The political significance of Varanasi, Hinduism’s oldest and most holiest temple town, came into the spotlight when Modi chose this bellwether seat in eastern UP as his launch pad for his national ambitions in 2014.

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Though he also contested from Vadodara in Gujarat, it was evident that the Varanasi constituency was closer to Modi’s heart. The rich symbolism of the man who was leading the charge of political Hindutva contesting from a city, renowned for its religious landmarks and syncretic culture, and rued for its decrepit civic infrastructure and the pollution of the river Ganga, had ensured that all roads led to Varanasi. The roadshows taken out by PM Modi and the Akhilesh-Rahul combine on Saturday and Sunday through Varanasi, with their followers crowding the streets, and peering out from the windows of surrounding residential and commercial establishments, amid flags, banners and floral showers, provided for much visual spectacle. The optics were not meant just for Varanasi’s citizens alone, where there are three seats on offer, but for the entire Poorvanchal belt, part of which went to vote on Saturday. 49 seats ton Saturday in Phase 6 and the 40 that go to polls on Wednesday could make the difference between a hung Assembly or an outright majority.

In 2007, the BSP did well in this belt, while in 2012 the SP had an edge, while in 2014, except for Azamgarh, the BJP managed a clean sweep in the eastern UP belt.The BJP’s strategy of attempting to isolate the SP from the non-Yadav OBC voters and the BSP from the non-Jatav Dalit voters, Mayawati’s gambit of wooing strongman Mukhtar Ansari to her fold, and Akhilesh’s claim of ‘Kaam Bolta Hai’ will be put to test in these two phases.Like Bundelkhand, because of its distance from Lucknow and Delhi, the Poorvanchal belt has faced decades of developmental neglect. The election of Modi as Varanasi MP was expected to provide the much-needed boost to development but even the Centre has limitations without a cooperative state government in tow. This is where Modi’s exhortation to have the BJP in power in Lucknow will draw voters.

Mayawati’s promise to break UP into four states where Poorvanchal will become a separate state is a more feasible solution to the developmental neglect but it hasn’t gained much traction with voters. Unlike Modi and Akhilesh, Mayawati keeps her distance from the crowds and is not a fiery or engaging orator. But her huge rally at the outskirts of Varanasi is evidence that her core support among Dalits and weaker sections is undiminished.

Often, it is identity politics that has been a selling point here, much like neighbouring Bihar. In the absence of a perceptible swing like 2007, 2012 or 2014, the fragmentation of votes  between the three leading parties will mean that a slim margin will separate the winners from the losers. The huge roadshows and rallies in Varanasi may be a barometer of the intensity of the political contest in eastern UP. But this is also a warning to the contenders that the optics can only go so far and the failure to deliver on electoral promises can also prod voters to punish them hard.