DNA Edit: ‘Grand Alliance’ of Opposition leaders is a grand dream

The show of unity by Opposition leaders at the swearing-in ceremony of Karnataka Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy, makes for excellent headlines and pictures but are not grounded in reality.

Despite the attendance of almost every major regional leader and shows of bonhomie such as a warm embrace between Sonia Gandhi and Mayawati, a united front against the BJP is not that likely or practical. Apart from ideological and personal differences – the SP and the BSP, Mamata Banerjee and the Left –  there is the question of practicality.

Even if BSP supremo Mayawati were to join this grand alliance could she really persuade her supporters to vote for the SP or Congress – at a time when Dalit clashes with other castes and communities are on a high? The answer is no. Also, politics is a matter of convenience and self-interest and for that we need to look no further than the Bihar polls. Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad hugged for the cameras proudly touting the Grand Alliance but it was not long before Nitish ditched Lalu to join the NDA.  

Is there any guarantee that this will not happen again? No. The other main problem is the Congress and just what role is the Grand Old Party likely to take in this alliance. Things for the Grand Old Party are very different from former PM IK Gujral’s time when he led a United Front government propped up by the Congress. At that time the Congress held the upper hand and knew it. Even in the days of the UPA government, other parties allowed Congress to take the lead role.

This is not likely to be the case now. Congress is in power in four states,  and in Karnataka the speed at which they accepted the JD(S)’s terms shows that Sonia Gandhi will certainly have her authority undermined now. This already seems to be happening. Mamata who has made public moves towards the formation of a Grand Alliance is very likely to want to be driving hand behind the coalition. And sooner, rather than later, you are likely to see a clash between the two women.

Forget different parties for a minute, let’s look inwards. It’s no secret that Akhilesh and his father Mulayam don’t see eye to eye. It is also no secret that the SP supremo has warm relations with the BJP. Will Akhilesh really be able to carry his party along without upsetting his father, and alienating a section of the SP party workers? This too seems very unlikely.   So as talks of a united Opposition mounts, it is worth remembering here that a grand platform to bring together like minded parties on a common platform has been tried before by parties – to combat the BJP – and failed.

Alarmed by the BJP’s rise in the country, parties such as JD(U) RJD, SP, JD(S), Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD and Kamal Morarka-led Samajwadi Janata Party came together to launch the Janata Parivar in 2015. The events then were not dissimilar to today.

The Janata Parivar saw plenty of photos, generated a lot of media buzz but quickly fizzled away. This has been the history of all Third Fronts in Indian politics ever since the Janata Party was formed in 1977.