Edit: Poll picture

The war drums have started beating in Maharashtra with the Election Commission announcing October 15 as the day of battle. On that very day polling will be held in all the 288 seats of the politically crucial state where 4,000 booths have been deemed sensitive. It’s a mammoth undertaking involving at least 8.6 crore voters. This number is likely to go up with the Commission urging people to enrol before September 17 — 10 days prior to the last date of filing nominations. In the wake of the major blunder in the voter lists during the Lok Sabha polls, there is fear in some quarters that the September 17 deadline is too fine for the EC to ensure that the rolls are properly revised and tabulated. Nonetheless, the Commission appears confident of pulling off the job. On October 19, the results will be declared, and the new dispensation will come into force before November 8. 

The winds of change have been gathering force even before the last general elections. A strong anti-incumbency wave is sweeping the state — evident in the results of the parliamentary polls when the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance secured 41 of the total 48 seats between themselves. This time, too, the electorate seems to favour the saffron combine. The ABP-AC Nielson opinion poll predicts that the NDA alone will bag 200 seats, of which the BJP’s tally will be 107. However, it would be too early for the NDA to rejoice, given the proverbial slip between the cup and the lip. 
For starters, the future of the alliance looks uncertain at this stage. A belligerent Sena, desperate to protect its turf, has raised the BJP’s hackles by refusing to yield to the latter’s demand for more seats. Terming the BJP’s insistence as “excessive lust” that could lead to “divorce”, an editorial on Saturday in the Sena mouthpiece Saamna has drawn the battle-lines in a rocky marriage. Apart from coalition woes, there are other issues plaguing the BJP. Its biggest drawback is the lack of strong leadership at the state level. Gopinath Munde’s demise is perceived to be the primary cause of a rudderless BJP, which is racked by internecine rivalries. Amit Shah’s maiden visit to Mumbai on September 4 was an exercise in troubleshooting — to put a lid over internal dissent, and the chief ministerial ambitions of some of its senior leaders. 
Shah’s recent directive to leaders and workers to strengthen the state unit and reach out to voters stems from the fear that the Modi magic alone may not be enough to sway public imagination. Not only are the issues in assembly polls different from the ones dictating the Lok Sabha outcome, the BJP’s poor showing at the bypolls in Uttarakhand, Bihar, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh has made the party realise that the electorate is too wise for comfort. 

If the saffron alliance weathers the storm, it will reap the benefits of fighting a beleaguered opposition. The Congress and the NCP will play frenemies at the hustings, further denting whatever little credibility they had been left with. Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan’s belated attempt — clearing Rs4,000-crore real-estate projects and relaxing housing regulations a day before the code of conduct set in — is a classic case of too little too late. Luckily for the Sena-BJP, the Raj Thackeray-led MNS seems to have lost the zeal to put up a spirited fight. 
Let’s not forget, October 15 will also put to test Shah’s managerial skills. Can the BJP president recreate the UP magic in Maharashtra?