Couched inside a seemingly temperate article in the authoritative, official Chinese Communist Party newspaper People’s Daily, on November 15, was a warning to India’s political and military leadership. Referring to reports of India deploying 100,000 troops in the northeast, it hinted at the forces that China could deploy in the event of future conflict.

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The article observed that India’s “…action is completely not worthwhile. Currently, India has 40,000 troops in the disputed area, and if the further 100,000 is deployed, the total number of the troops will reach 140,000. In an era when precision-guided weapons are developing rapidly, everyone with common sense knows that concentrated troops could be eliminated easily.” It added that security would not be guaranteed despite the $13 billion expenditure.

Interestingly, Zhongguo Qingnian Bao (China Youth Daily), the Chinese Communist Youth League’s official newspaper first published the article. CYL chief, Lu Hao, is reputedly on the fast-track in the CCP.

China’s military literature confirms that China intends any future conflict to be of short duration. China’s armed forces will open future conflicts with massive offensive cyber and electronic-jamming operations to cripple the adversary’s infrastructure, equipment and command systems. This will be followed by precision missile attacks to overwhelm the military and political leaderships’ resolve. Ground-based attacks will follow. The latest People’s Daily article underscores this. Recent articles in China’s official media have additionally publicised major military exercises conducted by the People’s Liberation Army in the remote fastness of the Tibetan Plateau opposite India.

India has also received warnings in the context of the dispute in the South China Sea. Official media articles critical of US-Republic of Korea military exercises in 2010 bracketed Japan, India and Vietnam as countries that were drawing closer to the US to ‘contain’ China. Earlier articles observed that history had imposed limits on the extent to which China’s relationship with Japan and India could develop.

Some suggested that China would have to ultimately use military means to settle outstanding border disputes and, while choosing between one of the two bigger nations, India will likely be the first choice. In July this year, an Indian Navy warship was told on an open radio channel while near the Vietnamese coast that it was entering ‘Chinese waters’, and instructed to leave. Just weeks ago, reacting to a commercial contract signed between India’s ONGC and Vietnam, China warned India against proceeding with off-shore oil exploration plans.

China’s suspicions about the nature of India-US relations have undoubtedly been heightened in recent weeks. Beijing closely monitored the US’ ‘AirSea Battle’ concept, President Obama’s visit to Australia, and the accompanying unprecedented US diplomatic activity in the Asia-Pacific region.

US flirtation with Yangon would have especially irked Beijing. Myanmar will for the first time in 50 years next month receive a US secretary of state, when Hillary Clinton will meet Aung Sang Suu Kyi. In another apparent snub to Beijing, Myanmar’s new defence chief, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, travelled to Vietnam on November 14, on his first trip abroad instead of to China. In the Philippines, Clinton referred to the South China Sea as the ‘West Philippine Sea.’

In Australia, President Obama declared that US troops will be based there. He asserted that the US intended to retain influence in the Asia-Pacific, including the South Pacific. He emphasised US interests in Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Cambodia and ‘in our welcome of India as it “looks east” and plays a larger role as an Asian power.’

In another setback to China, the South China Sea issue was commented on by 16 of the 18 leaders at the East Asia Summit, including India. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao raised the issue at a separate meeting on the sidelines of the Summit with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who affirmed India’s interests. A day earlier the Global Times, a subsidiary of the People’s Daily, described efforts to include the South China Sea as designed to ‘bring great pressure to China’ and accused US of ‘encouraging’ China’s neighbours to ‘challenge China.’

China’s ire became evident when the People’s Daily warned Australia against being ‘caught in the crossfire’ and Song Xiaojun, a military commentator with China Central Television and former PLA Navy officer, cautioned that ‘Chinese strategic missiles can reach Australia.’ Reports simultaneously surfaced that China is contemplating establishing a military base in Timor Leste. Global Times quoted Major General Peng Guangqian of the Academy of Military Sciences as saying the US was trying to use Australia to contain China in a ‘pincer’ movement. He added it would be a historical setback if the US was trying to provoke a ‘21st-century new Cold War.’

In this backdrop, China’s official media articles critical of India assume significance. India should be prepared for a period of increased tension in India-China relations.